It is said from Shan Shanghua (general secretary of China Iron & Steel Association) that CISA will strictly adopt a unified price and the agency system for imported iron ores next year.

CISA is reported to have removed about 10 enterprises off the list of companies with iron ore import qualification, while the association always added some new members to list in the past years. “It shows how determined CISA is in regulating the market.” Said an official with CISA.

A senior official of Shandong Iron & Steel told 21st Century Business Herald that CISA is actually preparing for the 2010 international iron ore negotiations now.

“Although CISA declares that negotiations for the 2009 prices are still going on, there won’t be any new results. We have begun preparing for the 2010 negotiations, but haven’t stated any real talk with the three iron ore suppliers.”

The senior official said.The three iron ore suppliers are Vale, BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto.At mid September, Tom Schutte, chief of BHP’s Sales Department, said that the talk for iron ore price in 2010 would start this October.

Although iron ore price talk is declared to start in October each year, the routine is that the real negotiation only begins in next year’s January, and both sides use the strategy of “playing for time” to add to its bargaining chip.Investment banks like Goldman Sacks, Merrill Lynch, UBS and JP Morgan, expect the iron ore price of long-term contracts may rise between 10 to 20 percent in 2010.However, Zeng Jiesheng, analyst with China’s information provider MySteel.com, says the investment banks may be exaggerating and the final price will largely rely on the market demand and supply.

According to MySteel.com statistics, Iron ore stock at major Chinese ports reached 73.32 million tons by 18 September. Currently, Chinese steel plants and traders are stocking iron ores on a dim outlook towards the 2010 international talk.

It is said from the European Union on Thursday that deciding to slap five-year duties on steel pipe imported from China on alleged dumping charges.

The long-term tariffs were up to 39.2 percent as a punishment to Chinese exporters for allegedly selling seamless pipe and tubes below cost in the EU, the European Commission said.

The decision was based on a vote at the end of July by trade officials and experts from EU member states.

The five-year duties, which are much higher than the provisional ones imposed in April, will take effect after the EU’s Official Journal publishes the decision by Oct. 8.

The 27-bloc imposed provisional duties of up to 24.2 percent in April on such products imported from China.

The EU began to a probe in July 2008 over a dumping complaint by a group of European producers.

Despite a commitment to fight protectionism made at the G-20 summits in Washington and London, the EU has tended to resort to protectionism to protect its own producers in recent years.

It has refused to recognize China’s market economy status, taking advantage to imposed tariffs on Chinese products including shoes, steel wire, pipes, tubes and bicycles.

The practice not only hurts Chinese exporters but also European consumers, according to consumer groups in Europe.

It is said from a nonferrous market information provider on Wednesday that China’s copper stocks could approach a record high of 1.2 million tons, including copper both from the government reserves and market stocks.

According the report, such large stocks are enough for domestic consumption for about 80 days.

The country’s copper stocks were estimated at 670,000 tons in May and 735,000 tons in July. That means the stocks have increased by almost six times in August and September, mainly due to large imports in July and August.

Within the 1.2 million tons of copper stocks, the government reserves are 235,000 tons.  Antaike has raised its forecast for China’s copper consumption from 5.3 million tons to 5.5 million tons this year. However, the domestic copper consumption hasn’t yet improved substantially.

In the face of high stocks, some copper enterprises say they may try to promote sales or add short positions in the futures market before the National Day Holiday at the beginning of October.

It is reported that the surging prices of the yellow metal globally have triggered demand for gold-related shares on the A-share market.

Leading gold mining shares including Shandong Gold Mining Co Ltd, Zhongjin Gold Corp, Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd, and new entrant Shandong Tyan Home Co Ltd rose sharply after gold prices breached the $1,000 per ounce mark in early September.

While gold prices at the New York Commodity Exchange have surged around 35 percent since November 2008, the Shenwan Gold Index, the gauge of a basket of gold producing companies on the A-share market, has jumped by as much as 150 percent, and surpassed 200 percent at its peak, according to statistics from Wind Info.

As inflation fears and a weaker dollar continue to propel gold demand and peg the prices at the over $1,000 per ounce mark on international markets, more and more analysts have started taking an optimistic stance on the earnings of yellow metal producers.

“Chinese gold miners such as Shandong Gold Mining and Zhongjin Gold Corp will benefit from this round of price surges,” China Minzu Securities said in a recent report.

Ma Qianqi, analyst, Central China Securities, said apart from the price surge on the international markets, the Chinese market is also expected to witness larger demand as traditional holidays such as the National Day Holiday is round the corner and would be followed by the Spring Festival.

The week-long national holiday, which is traditionally a peak time for young couples to hold wedding ceremonies, is expected to push domestic demand for gold jewelry to a new high.
“The demand from gold jewelry makers will continue to propel gold prices,” Ma said.

In fact, most of the jewelry dealers have already increased gold prices. Beijing-based Caishikou Department Store, the largest gold jewelry retailer in the capital, increased gold prices by 6-7 yuan for each gram on September 15.

International gold prices have broken the $1,000 an ounce mark three times in the past with the last such instance on March 17, 2008, when it touched $1,030.80 per ounce.

Gold was quoted at $1,005.85 an ounce yesterday, within sight of a record high set on March 17 of last year.

Many analysts see international gold price rising further. Gold price could rise above $1,110 an ounce in 2010 as central banks diversify their reserves into gold due to a faltering dollar, economist Martin Murenbeeld at Dundee Wealth Economics told the Denver Gold Forum on Tuesday, Reuters reported.

“I believe the gold price will rise to $1,200 per ounce within the next six months,” Qin Weihuan, a researcher at China Gold Association, told China Daily.

“In the past, gold prices dropped back after it hit over $1,000 per ounce. But I believe this time the price has really breached the $1,000 ceiling and will stay at these levels for some time.”Qin said gold prices have entered a new “era” as inflation fears and uncertainty over the world economy will prompt investors to look for safe havens in bullion.

On the liquidity side, Qin said he believes that international buyers have already made most of the rally by buying the yellow metal.

The world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, the SPDR Gold Trust, said its holdings stood at 1,078.851 tons as of September 15. But there are pessimistic opinions too.

Fan Haibo, analyst with China Cinda Securities, said he doubts whether gold prices would stay at over $1,000 per ounce.

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It is said from a commercial banker on Tuesday that China is more likely to keep purchasing gold from its domestic producers rather on the global markets if it decides to increase its stockpile.

The State Administration of Foreign Exchange, an arm of the central bank, disclosed in April that it had raised its gold reserves to 1,054 tonnes from 600 tonnes since 2003 — but by buying from local producers and on the domestic market.

“China has no need at all to buy gold from the international markets,” Lila Lu, head of precious metals at Minsheng Bank Corp, told Reuters.

“Because China is a large gold producer, it can source gold directly from its domestic makers, most of which are state-run enterprises,” she said.

Minsheng, a medium-sized commercial bank based in Beijing, is China’s first listed non-state lender.

Analysts expect China to add to its gold holdings as a hedge against dollar depreciation, and speculation is swirling that Beijing will buy some of the bullion being offered for sale by the International Monetary Fund.

“It’s possible. It would be normal if we did buy, but it may also be a rumour,” Lu said.

Chinese officials have said they are keen to diversify the country’s $2.13 trillion of official currency reserves, some 70 percent of which are invested in dollar-denominated securities.

But Lu said there was no reason for China to dip into its reserves to buy gold.

“China has many other ways to invest its foreign exchange reserves. Why should we use dollars to buy gold? We can use yuan instead to purchase gold from domestic producers,” she said.

China surpassed South Africa in 2007 to become the world’s largest gold producer and output reached a record high of 282 tonnes in 2008. In the first half of this year, production rose by 13.5 percent from a year earlier to 146.5 tonnes.

Lu said she saw growing Chinese investment demand for gold, especially gold-linked products that can be more easily traded than bullion. These include “paper gold” sold through banks and margin trading on the Shanghai Gold Exchange.

“While I don’t see much change in physical gold trading, I feel that paper gold and margin trading will see big growth in China in coming years,” Lu said.

She said she expected turnover on Shanghai’s gold bourse to fall this year because of reduced price volatility.

Minsheng traded 208.3 tonnes of gold, or 13.3 percent of the exchange’s total, in 2008.

She said global economic uncertainty and the prospect of further dollar weakness could push gold up to $1,200 an ounce by the end of this year. The metal rose about $9 on Tuesday at $1,011.55.

Gold futures may tread higher nearing the keenly watched 16,000-rupees mark this week, supported by a weak dollar overseas, with investors eyeing the outcome from the Fed monetary policy and G20 meet for direction.

The most-traded October contract was 0.46 percent higher at 15,848 rupees per 10 grams at 6:04 p.m., when a weak dollar overseas supported the yellow metal, recovering from its one-week low of 15,665 rupees, struck on Monday in late-trade.

The euro hit a one-year high against a sliding dollar as dealers took advantage of the U.S. currency’s rise the previous day to resume selling ahead of a Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting and Group of 20 summit later in the week.

A weak dollar enhances gold’s appeal as an alternative asset to the greenback.

Prices are still below the all-time high of 16,040 rupees, struck on Feb. 20, earlier in the year.

“Gold may test 15,950-15,975 rupees later in the week,” said Gnanasekar Thiagarajan, director, Commtrendz Research.

“Gold may be in the range of 15,100-15,950 for the week,” said Pradeep Unni, senior research analyst with Richcomm Global Services.

However, subdued demand from India, the world’s largest consumer, may keep the upside limited, they added.

India’s gold demand abated on Tuesday after picking up for two continuous sessions, as prices recovered from their one-week low.

The World Gold Council’s January to June figures show India’s gold imports fell 55 percent to 126.7 tonnes from 282.3 tonnes a year earlier.