SWISS bank UBS has upgraded its one-month forecast for silver from $US25.50 an ounce to $US35/oz.

Duh, as we would say — if we weren’t more refined.

The white metal hit a 31-year record on Friday, reaching $US32.66/oz during the day. This surge is all the more impressive because the previous record in 1979 was due to the Hunt Brothers’ infamous attempt to corner the silver market. This time it’s investment demand.

Silver, along with tin (of which more below) has long been a Pure Speculation hobbyhorse. Now they have begun to run.

Even so, the pure silver stocks have a patchy record. Over the past 52 weeks, Cobar Consolidated Resources (CCU) is one of the better performers, moving from 13c last June to touching 92c on Friday. The big excitement last week came from Silver Mines (SVL), which announced a potential upside of 57 million ounces of silver at its Webbs project in NSW. The stock, 6.3c just 11 months ago, reached 36c. Argent Minerals (ARD) has shed its gold project to become a pure silver play and has 31.6 million ounces of silver at Kempfield, NSW, but has not exactly caught on fire.

It’s been a choppy 52 weeks: a high of 25c in September and a close on Friday at 22.5c.

Alycone Resources (AYN), despite raising $16.7m and having enough money to develop the mine, remains at a lowly 4.9c. Perhaps that is due to the history of the Texas project in Queensland — it has been such a long and, at one stage, debilitating grind.

There is a soaring demand for silver coins. In January, the US Mint sold 6.4 million ounces of American Eagle silver coins, up 78 per cent from January last year.

For the smaller retail investor, it represents cheaper security than gold. Given the Middle East situation, plus the debasement of paper money, such prudence seems warranted.

Among the other plays:

Cerro Resources (CJO) has 202 million ounces of the stuff at the Cerro del Gallo project in Mexico (along with gold and copper) and has acquired the Namiquipa silver-zinc-lead deposit. It looks like a market run has begun.

Cortona Resources (CRC) recently reported a shallow high-grade discovery 500m from its planned Dargues Reef goldmine with an intersection of 1m at 687 grams/tonne of silver.

Metals X (MLX) is now producing, as a by-product, copper concentrate at the Renison tin mine in Tasmania, with the process also having a silver credit. This has the potential to produce up to 100,000oz of silver a year.

White Rock Minerals (WRM) has 10.5m ounces of silver in northern NSW — and is looking for more. And the on-again, off-again Conrad silver-tin project in northern NSW is now on again with Malachite Resources (MAR) saying that, while it is still highly excited by its recent Lorena gold acquisition, the rise of silver and tin moving over $US32,500 a tonne are together making the economics of Conrad look pretty good. MAR went for gold after a Conrad financing deal evaporated, so it was a sensible move.

But the price surges have apparently prompted a decision to drill the Princess Shoot at Conrad, which comes nearly to the surface.

Conrad was mined twice before, most recently until the 1950s, but the Princess Shoot was hardly touched by the old miners.

Conrad is still considered MAR’s flagship and the potential company-maker, with a resource standing at 9.5m ounces of silver. Apart from silver and tin, there are also copper, lead, zinc and indium.

Oh, yes, we nearly forgot: the world’s biggest silver producer is Cannington in Queensland, owned by BHP Billiton (BHP).

Time for tin

TIN a precious metal? No, we haven’t been at the cooking sherry again. That’s the view at BNP Paribas. Well, their exact words were that with the metal moving over $US32,000 a tonne or $US1 an ounce it had “become, in effect, a precious metal”.

BNP is predicting a deficit this year and probably in 2012. Japan’s imports of refined tin rose by 60 per cent last year and Indonesia’s largest producer, PT Timah, saw decreased output last year. On the other hand, there is talk of three big Congolese mines reopening.

And no one knows how much the Chinese are stockpiling.

Recent news includes Consolidated Tin Mines (CSD) confirming additional mineralisation at the Windermere project near Cairns while Havilah Resources (HAV) will move to 85 per cent of the Prospect Hill tin project in South Australia, almost due west of Broken Hill. And if Central West Gold (CWG) could get its act together, it might be considered a serious tin player. First, they could update the website (last news posting: 2009) and, second, get cracking at the Ottery tin mine, once the leading hard-rock tin producer in New England and potentially high grade.

But CWG plans to spend just $25,000 on exploration in the current quarter. Have they looked at the tin price lately?

Israeli comments led to dollar weakness and gold, silver and oil rallying yesterday. The Israeli government described the Iranian warships move into the Suez canal as a “provocation” and hinted at a possible response.

An example, if one was needed, about how precarious the geopolitical situation in the Middle East is and how markets continue to underestimate the risk of military conflict.

Besides the very strong fundamentals, gold is looking better and better technically. After a four month period of correction and consolidation gold remains below levels seen last October (see chart below).

Gold in USD – 10 Day (Tick)

Gold bounced off support seen at the 150-day moving average and is now above the 100-day moving average. It is only 3.5% below the nominal record high of $1,423.75/oz seen in early December 2010.

Gold in USD – 1 Year (Daily) and 150 Day Moving Average

Even more important is the significant increase in demand seen in India, China and globally as people buy gold to protect themselves from macroeconomic risk and deepening inflation.

The World Gold Council reports that the increase in investment demand is a “global phenomenon,” reporting a 19% year-on-year rise across the world in its most recent report this morning.

In China alone, gold investment demand jumped 70% last year as Chinese people bought gold as a store of value. Demand is projected to grow a further 40% to 50% this year and jewelry demand will expand by 8% to 10% this year.

Gold imports by India, the largest buyer of gold in the world, climbed to a record of 918 metric tonnes in 2010, driven by a surge in jewelry demand with Indians continuing to buy jewelry as a store of value.

Reuters quoted a leading Chinese executive from Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC), the world’s largest bank by market value, as saying that demand for gold was growing at a voracious pace due to surging inflation.

Zhou said that the huge increase in Chinese demand seen last year would happen again in 2011 due to a “choppy stock market” and concerns about how rising interest rates will affect property markets.

Perhaps most importantly and rarely mentioned in the western media is the fact that the Chinese government is encouraging their citizens to buy physical gold and silver bullion having banned gold ownership from 1950 to 2003 (see video).

“Unlike the property market, investment in the gold sector is something the government is encouraging,” Zhou said.

Zhou said there was also voracious demand for silver, with ICBC bank alone selling about 13 tonnes of physical silver in January alone, compared with 33 tonnes in the whole of 2010. Were that demand to continue then demand for silver from ICBC alone could be as high as 156 tonnes this year. This would be a 370% increase on 2010.

Given the degree of demand for silver in China and internationally the forecast that silver could reach $36 an ounce this year, by Bloomberg analysts, is looking very conservative.

Those continuing to call gold and silver “bubbles” continue to ignore the facts and the many, many extremely important developments in the gold and silver bullion markets.

Gold

Gold is trading at $1,377.75/oz, €1,017.01/oz and £854.68/oz

Silver

Silver is trading at $30.59/oz, €22.58/oz and £18.98/oz.

Platinum Group Metals

Platinum is trading at $1,825.50/oz, palladium at $835.00/oz and rhodium at $2,400/oz.

Landlords in Lincolnshire whose properties are empty are being warned they could be targeted by copper thieves.

Lincolnshire Police has urged property owners to invest in extra security.

The warning comes following an increase in thefts of boilers and pipes from empty properties and those under renovation.

Unoccupied houses in Swift Gardens and Browning Drive in Lincoln have recently been targeted, police said.

Residents living near empty properties are also being asked to be vigilant and to report suspicious activity to Lincolnshire Police.

Investors of precious metal funds in Canada will immediately recognize the proverbial 800 pound giant in the room, when reading about the Sentry Precious Metals Growth Fund. Last year, the fund managed a 79 percent return, and in the process picked up some hardware at the annual Lipper Fund Awards. Sentry Precious Metals Growth, which posted an average annual return of 22 percent over three years, earned the award in the precious metals category, and has the best return of all categories for that period, also winning awards for both the one and five year periods.

In an interview with Gold Investing News, Mina Rizk, Product Manager and Analyst for Sentry Investments was pleased with the awards and the impact that it has represented for marketing opportunities, “The Fund continues to attract assets based on its strong and consistent track record. Including the 2011 awards, the Fund has now captured seven Lipper Awards over the past five years.”

Sentry has been establishing quite a strong name for itself in the Canadian investment management universe, with the entire firm’s suite of assets under management totaling 80 percent growth on the year. The growth total is a product of the weighted average performance across all mandates in addition to the net sales of the funds. The second highest total for firms with more than a billion dollars of assets was Dynamic Funds, which posted a 33 percent gain.

Portfolio management commentary

Portfolio Manager, Kevin MacLean has indicated that he has been able to reduce risk or volatility in his fund because it is focused on smaller companies, which can add to existing reserves and resources, as opposed to large gold producers, whose share price returns are more dependent upon an appreciating gold price that is often relatively volatile.

“When the gold price goes down, the senior shares go down and stay down until the gold price goes up again,” MacLean said. “The shares of smaller companies can go down initially, but they will come back fast because they are creating wealth by finding it in the ground.” In a sense, these companies are growing the underlying asset base ‘organically’.

While the price of gold had been falling last month after last year’s strong surge, he suggested “The U.S. recovery is almost driven by printing money,” he said. “The United States has decided to devalue their currency rather than tighten their belts, so that is bullish for gold.” This is also underscored by escalated geopolitical concerns in the Mideast as well as supporting data from slightly higher U.S. inflation for the month of January.

Critical investment features

The fund comes at a slightly higher price point, featuring a Management Expense Ratio (MER) of 2.6 percent of net assets. The MER is a measure of what it costs an investment company to operate the fund and consists of a management fee, record-keeping, custodial services, taxes, legal expenses, and accounting and auditing costs divided by the average dollar value of its assets under management. Operating expenses are taken out of a fund’s assets and lower the return to a fund’s investors. As a category benchmark the median MER for the precious metal category is 2.3 percent.

The total assets of the fund are approximately $730 million, which permits the manager to invest in exploration, junior mining and senior production of precious metals. This provides investors with exposure to international enterprises with the broadest range of market capitalization.

The competitive nature and industry compliance requires that the fund disclose financial details quarterly, and the most recent sector allocation indicates about 56 percent is invested in junior mine production, 23 percent in mid tier miners, 10 percent in senior miners and 10 percent in exploration companies.

Hamburg, NY (WBEN) — A portion of the long-dormant Bethlehem Steel plant is about to be brought back to life.

The site’s owner, Great Lakes Industrial Development LLC, says it has sold 44 acres of the 16-acre site, including the building complex that used to house Bethlehem’s Galvanized Product Division, to Metalico, Inc. The purchase price was $3.2 million.

Metalico is based in New Jersey. It operates scrap metal recycling plants there, in New York, and in five other states. It already runs a total of five facilities in Erie, Niagara, and Chautauqua counties.

Metalico’s plan is to install a heavy-duty 80104 Metal Shredder in the empty building. That will leave room inside the facility for the future addition of more recycling equipment.

Metalico estimates that installing the shredder will immediately create 15 to 20 permanent jobs.

Great Lakes Industrial Development eventually hopes to attract tenants for the rest of the former Bethlehem Steel site, creating a business park for manufacturing, warehousing and back office space.

Tim Reeves steered his red pickup through the narrow streets of a Greenville neighborhood, pointing out homes that had open crawl-space doors, water damage and rectangular holes that used to hold vents.

All are the tell-tale signs of copper theft. Reeves, who owns a dozen rental houses, said he has been targeted five times, costing him about $20,000, with no arrests made.

Law enforcement has traditionally fought copper thefts by going after the thieves, but new efforts would put the focus on the scrap yards that buy the metal to recycle.

Supporters of the tougher approach said it would help reduce copper thefts by giving police new tools to keep tabs on sellers. Recyclers said the vast majority of sellers are honest and that added bureaucracy could be more trouble than it is worth.

Two bills in the Legislature would require recyclers to keep more records and pay by check instead of cash, while forcing anyone wanting to sell copper to get a permit from their local sheriff.

Reeves said he is in favor of a new approach.

“If you make it hard for these guys to sell it, they aren’t going to steal it,” he said.

Legitimate scrap-metal sellers often include contractors, property owners who find metal during house cleanings and people who eke out a living by gathering scrap, recyclers said.

Kamal Desor, owner of Adams Scrap Recycling, said his Greenville business offers a service that pumps money into the economy and keeps potentially hazardous substances out of landfills.

The way Desor sees it, he employs 8,000 people – the number who have sold scrap metal at his business since 2009. For many, it is the last option to put food on the table and keep heaters filled with kerosene, Desor said.

Some sellers are mentally and physically handicapped and any new regulations, no matter how simple, could be too much, he said.

“Then they have to steal,” Desor said. “It could make a good man go bad.”

Recyclers sell scrap metal to companies that can turn the material into new products. Copper is prized for its electrical and thermal conductivity and is used in plumbing, electrical wires and heating and cooling pipes.

Law enforcement has struggled with cooper thefts since the global demand for the metal pumped up its scrap value.

Copper has gone from less than $1 a pound in 2001 to more than $4 a pound on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. The price has fully recovered from a dip it took during the recession.

Laurens County Sheriff Ricky Chastain said that the pace of thefts mirrors copper prices.

“If the prices continue to rise, you’ll continue to see” thefts, he said. “If the prices go down, these types of crimes go down with it.”

A 2008 intelligence assessment by the FBI found that copper theft was threatening critical infrastructure.

An attempted theft at an electrical substation in Hickory Tavern last month caused a fire that led to a widespread power outage, Chastain said. Whoever did it took off before deputies arrived, and no injuries were reported, he said.

Three men in Greenville County were accused last September of stealing copper from two cell phone towers, deputies said.

More commonly, thieves tear apart homes and businesses, especially those that have been vacant for a long time. What can be most frustrating is that the cost of repairing the damage is usually more than the value of the copper.

Rep. Harry Ott Jr., D-St. Matthews, said the common denominator in every copper theft is that the metal eventually has to be turned into money.

“We’re going to try to put as many bumps in the road as we can to try to slow that process down,” Ott said.

He is the primary sponsor of a bill that would require scrap yards to pay by check and sellers to get a permit from the sheriff.

Ott said the intention of his bill is to help track sellers, not put recyclers out of business. No fee would be associated with the permits, Ott said.

Rep. Jimmy Bales, D-Eastover, is sponsoring another bill that would require recyclers to pay by check and send a copy, along with a copy of the seller’s driver’s license, to the state Department of Revenue. The department would maintain a website displaying all the state’s sales of nonferrous metals.

Recyclers said they cooperate with law enforcement and do their best to avoid buying stolen property.

Adams Scrap employees take photos of each vehicle and load that passes through its yard and sometimes take a thumbprint from sellers, Desor said. OmniSource, which has nine South Carolina properties, trains employees to watch for stolen items, said Southeastern vice president Bob Brewer.

Brewer said the best anti-theft efforts come out of recyclers, authorities and lawmakers working together.

“I think there are times when a law could potentially become bureaucratic and the administrative work becomes more effort than the actual resolution to the crime itself,” he said.

Several of the rental homes that Reeves owns are in the Woodside neighborhood where he was looking for signs of copper theft. Reeves said thieves have been known to break into crawl spaces and kick out vents for light.

One vacant home had a wide-open front door.

“I guarantee you that has been stripped,” he said.

Reeves has taken defensive measures at his homes. He has installed poles and other guards around outdoor heat pumps. He has padlocked crawl space doors and put in motion-activated lights and alarms.

Some of his heat-and-air units are bolted down with rivets rather than screws, he said.“You just try to do whatever you can do,” Reeves said.

A man suspected of stealing dozens of grates and manhole covers in and around Jackson has confessed to a number of the thefts, Jackson police said.

Randy Johnson Jr., 24, of Clinton is cooperating with investigators following his arrest on Monday in connection with a metal theft operation, Detective Jaye Coleman said.

Johnson and Derrick Hodges, 22, of Mendenhall are charged with five counts of grand larceny and face additional charges for thefts in other jurisdictions.

Coleman said Johnson has been forthcoming in providing details in how the theft operation worked.

From January until their arrests, Johnson and Coleman had made between $3,000 and $4,000 by allegedly selling stolen metal to area scrap metal yards, Coleman said.

The men are suspected of stealing 50 drainage grates and manhole covers, including 25 in Jackson.

Several belonged to the city of Jackson and even had the city seal on them, Coleman said. In at least one instance, the suspects allegedly removed a metal cover in the middle of a road, which caused damage to several vehicles.

“Sometimes they would hit two times in a day or every other day,” Coleman said.

The men would use a rod to help lift the heavy covers and then load them into a pickup, he said.

Coleman said it appears the men started off stealing lightweight metals then moved up to heavier objects because they paid more.

Some scrap yards pay around $200 per ton for scrap metal, and the two men allegedly were cashing in between $400 and $500 each trip, he said.

Don LeMar, manager of General Recycle in Flowood, said he got suspicious when the men kept returning with the grates to sell.

“It’s unusual for us to get that much from a regular person. If we get that much, it’s usually from a contractor doing a big demo job,” LeMar said. “The last thing we want to do is purchase stolen property.”

LeMar said his company buys metal “by the semi-load” and said it is nearly impossible to examine every piece of metal that comes in. Once the metal is weighed, it is carried away with a crane.

General Recycle employees will not hesitate to call police if they are suspicious of a customer, he said.

In the recent case, the business contacted Flowood police, who then contacted JPD. The two agencies set up a sting Monday morning and captured Johnson and Hodges as they attempted to sell stolen metal to General Recycle, police said.

In Jackson, Johnson and Hodges allegedly stole property belonging to the city, The Car Wash at 335 Elton Road, JNS Food Mart at 2010 Raymond Road, Nicks Food Mart at 4420 Robinson Road, The Car Wash at 2570 Siwell Road and Cypress Point Apartments, 1805 Hospital Drive. The men also have been connected to thefts in Bolton, Terry and Byram.

Johnson and Hodges were released Wednesday from the Hinds County Detention Center, each on a $25,000 bond.

PRINCETON — As the price of metal goes up, so does the number of thefts of items like copper from homes and platinum from vehicles, officials say.

Sgt. D.W. Miller Jr., with the West Virginia State Police Princeton Detachment, said the state police have noticed an increase in metal thefts as the market price of metal continues to rise.

“Basically, any type of metal can be targeted,” Miller said. “Metal prices are going up with platinum and copper being the highest. People will take appliances, junk cars, just about everything. In a week, we have about six to eight metal theft related calls.”

Miller said police have seen entire vehicles towed away from the side of the road for scrap metal.

“A lot of times, if someone breaks down on the side of the road, they come along with a lowjack and tow the entire car off,” Miller said. “They basically take the whole car.  Even the price on junk cars has gone up. If there is a car on the side of the road for more than a day, someone will come and pick it up for scrap.”

Platinum from catalytic convertors is another item Miller said thieves are frequently after.

“A lot of catalytic convertors are reported tampered with,” he said. “We have a big problem with them due to the high price of platinum, and they’re very easy to mess with. They’ll take a battery-powered hand saw, zip them off, and be gone in a matter of seconds. Basically, if they’re going to take metal from a car, it’s going to be the catalytic convertors, if they don’t end up taking the entire car.”

Miller said the amount of metal in catalytic convertors isn’t much, though an ounce of platinum is worth quite a sum.

“Most of the time, they sell the cars to junk dealers, who can haul it off to other states to cash in for more money,” Miller said. “Platinum is selling at around $1,000 an ounce, so it’s quite lucrative. Of course, there isn’t enough platinum in a single catalytic convertor to get much of anything. ”

According to Miller, those caught attempting to steal metals from cars are often given fines or jail time.

“It’s a misdemeanor,” he said. “They can get a fine up to a year in jail.

Gold is another lucrative metal, though Miller said there haven’t been many gold thefts reported lately in the area.

“We haven’t seen a rise in it, but we do know most jewelry thieves go straight to the pawn shop,” Miller said.

Miller said there are some precautions residents and vehicle owners can take to prevent their homes or cars from being targeted.

“For cars, you can’t really tell anything’s been tampered with until you start it up and hear the exhaust has been cut,” he said. “People can look for damage to fencing as an indicator. Even if the car is right out in the open or in someone’s yard, they can just wake up to find the metal is gone. If you have an old house or property with copper in it, check it more closely to make sure it’s secure. Instead of checking it once or twice a week, you might want to check it once or twice a day. There isn’t a whole lot you can do, unfortunately.”

Bluefield Police Chief J.W. “Joe” Wilson said the Bluefield Police Department hasn’t seen an increase in thefts lately, but officers are keeping an eye out as prices on metals climb.

“A year ago, catalytic converter theft was a big thing, but recently, we haven’t had but one attempt reported in the past month,” Wilson said. “Metal prices are up and we do see a lot of people hauling metal. We haven’t seen an increase in thefts yet, but that doesn’t mean there won’t be one.”

Wilson said reports of copper theft continue to remain steady.

“The copper theft is about the same,” he said. “We haven’t had a lot come through or seen a big increase. Still, with prices going up, we could see a bigger jump soon.”

Though there hasn’t been a jump in jewelry thefts in the area, Wilson said there are ways for police to track down gold or jewelry thieves.

“When companies come in to buy gold, they give us a list of who’s selling it to them and how much they’re selling,” Wilson said. “We can keep and eye on things that way.”

Wilson said alert neighbors are the main reason they are able to catch copper thieves.

“In most instances, it takes neighbors to be alert and report it,” Wilson said. “If anyone sees suspicious activity, they need to let us know. We often can’t tell the difference between a thief and a homeowner, so we need help from the community. If you have metals, keep an eye on them. Thieves like to target abandoned houses or ones being refurbished. You can also lock up things of value.”

There are precautions Wilson said owners can take to deter thieves from targeting their vehicle.

“People can try to park it in safer places, somewhere with good lighting or where you can keep a better eye on it,” Wilson said. “Still, catalytic converter theft can happen in your driveway, in a public parking lot, and just about anywhere.”

Most importantly, Wilson said citizens need to report any suspicious person or incidents to their local law enforcement.

“If you suspect your car or residence has been tampered with, give us a call,” Wilson said.