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Archive for the ‘Copper’ Category

Copper, Gold, Lead, Nonferrous Metal, Silver, Tin

October 26, 2011

SP 500 Looks Poised For A Sharp Pullback Near Term says Dr. Copper

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October 20, 2011 /> David A. Banister- www.MarketTrendForecast.com

Back on October 3rd I wrote a public article forecasting a major market bottom at around 1088 on the SP 500 index.  I surmised we were about to complete a 5 wave move to the downside that commenced with the Bin Laden highs of 1370 in early May of this year.  The following day we bottomed at 1074 intra-day and closed over my 1088 pivot and continued higher as we all know.  That brings us to the recent highs of 1233 intra-day this week, a strong 159 point rally off the 1074 lows in just a few weeks.

Markets I contend move based on human behavioral patterns, mostly because the crowd reacts to good or bad news in different ways depending on the collective psychology of the masses.  There are times when seemingly bad news is ignored and the markets keep going higher, and there are times when very good news is also ignored and the markets go lower. This is why I largely ignore the day to day economic headlines and talking heads on CNBC, as they are not much help in forecasting markets at all.

Using my methods, I was able to forecast the top in Gold from 1862-1907 while everyone was screaming to buy.  I was able to forecast the April 2010 top in the SP 500 well in advance, the bottom last summer, and recent pivot tops at 1231 and 1220 amongst others.  All of this is done using crowd behavioral theory and a bit of my own recipes.  That brings us forward to this recent rally from 1074 to 1233, which as it turns out is not all that random.

The rally to 1233 will have taken place within a 13 Fibonacci trading day window which ends today.  In addition, the rally is leading into the end of Options Expiration week which tends to mark pivot highs and pivot lows nearly every single month.  Also, at 1233 we have a 61% Fibonacci retracement level of the 1010 lows of July 2010 and the 1370 highs of May 2011.  1233 was my “Bear line in the sand” I gave out a few months ago to my subscribers as a likely bull back breaker.  In essence, the market is having trouble breaking the glass ceiling at 1233 for a reason; it’s a psychological barrier for investors now.

Near term, I expect the market to have another sharp correction to work off the near 160 point SP 500 rally that has taken hold in just over two weeks and again on 13 Fibonacci trading days as of today.  In addition to that, we should follow copper as it tends to be an extremely good indicator for the SP 500 index long and short term. /> Right now, Copper has dropped 8% this week while the SP 500 levitates on a magic carpet ride within a 30 point range.  Copper looks like it has begun a 5th wave down, which will likely take it to the $2.70’s per pound from $3.46 last week on its recent bounce from $2.99.  Below I offer a few charts showing the projected copper pattern and also one showing the SP 500 relating to Copper.

Right now, Copper has dropped 8% this week while the SP 500 levitates on a magic carpet ride within a 30 point range.  Copper looks like it has begun a 5th wave down, which will likely take it to the $2.70’s per pound from $3.46 last week on its recent bounce from $2.99.  Below I offer a few charts showing the projected copper pattern and also one showing the SP 500 relating to Copper.

In any event, we are due for what I call a “B wave” correction of sentiment in the SP 500 and market indices, which should take the SP 500 to the 1149-1167 ranges minimally, and perhaps set up another entry for a C wave to the upside.  Caution is warranted near term is my point.  If you’d like to receive these types of regular updates during the week covering Gold, Silver, and SP 500 and more, check us out for a coupon or free weekly update at www.MarketTrendForecast.com

Copper, Gold, Nonferrous Metal, Silver, Tin

October 6, 2011

Understanding the Key Support Levels for Gold

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Gold bulls and inquiring minds are perplexed by last week’s mayhem in the precious metals markets. In addition to gold and silver, copper prices also went into free fall last week which is an ominous sign for the broader economy in general. We live in interesting times as geopolitical uncertainty, social acrimony, and financial collapse shape the world around us.

The situation in Europe continues to worsen and central banks and wealthy individuals are trying to find safe havens to protect their wealth. Most gold bugs believed that gold and silver would be the answer, but in this environment that hypothesis did not play out. In addition, the Federal Reserve came out with operation twist which market participants despised. Since the 3rd round of Quantitative Easing was not announced, risk assets such as the S&P 500, gold, and silver sold off sharply.

Read rest of article here… /> http://bit.ly/mPG8Ln

Copper, Gold, Nonferrous Metal, Silver, Tin

Understanding the Key Support Levels for Gold

Tags: , , , , , , ,

Gold bulls and inquiring minds are perplexed by last week’s mayhem in the precious metals markets. In addition to gold and silver, copper prices also went into free fall last week which is an ominous sign for the broader economy in general. We live in interesting times as geopolitical uncertainty, social acrimony, and financial collapse shape the world around us.

The situation in Europe continues to worsen and central banks and wealthy individuals are trying to find safe havens to protect their wealth. Most gold bugs believed that gold and silver would be the answer, but in this environment that hypothesis did not play out. In addition, the Federal Reserve came out with operation twist which market participants despised. Since the 3rd round of Quantitative Easing was not announced, risk assets such as the S&P 500, gold, and silver sold off sharply.

Read rest of article here… /> http://bit.ly/mPG8Ln

Copper, Gold, Lead, Nonferrous Metal, Silver, Tin, Zinc

August 10, 2011

The Crime Against Silver

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The Crime Against Silver

Richard (Rick) Mills /> Ahead of the Herd

As a general rule, the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information

In 1873, the Fourth Coinage Act was enacted by the US Congress. Western silver miners labeled this measure the “Crime of ‘73″ because it stopped the printing of US silver dollars. The US had, unofficially, abandoned its bimetallic standard in favor of a monometallic one – gold.

The supply of silver not being used for coinage increased – European Nations had just gone from a silver to a gold standard, the US was no longer coining silver dollars and these two factors, when coupled with massive new silver discoveries in the American west, caused the price of silver to collapse.

There was once a time in history when people acted. . . . Farmers were trapped in debt. They were the most oppressed of Americans, they experimented with cooperative purchasing and marketing, they tried to find their own way out of the strangle hold of debt to merchants, but none of this could work if they couldn’t get capital. So they had to turn to politics, and they had to organize themselves into a party. . . . The populists didn’t just organize a political party, they made a movement. They had picnics and parties and newsletters and classes and courses, and they taught themselves, and they taught each other, and they became a group of people with a sense of purpose, a group of people with courage, a group of people with dignity.” Lawrence Goodwin, author of The Populist Moment

Western miners, seeking the right to turn silver directly into money, mid-western grain and southern cotton farmers (who both had immense debts because of price deflation caused by overproduction) rallied to silver’s cause and the movement became known as Free Silver. The Populist Party had a strong Free Silver element and its merger with the Democratic Party moved Democrats from being in support of a monometallic gold standard to the Free Silver position.

Free Silver supporters were called “Silverites.”

Silverite’s argued that silver should continue to be part of the monetary standard with gold, their slogan was “16 to 1″ – sixteen ounces of silver would be equal in value to one ounce of gold, using the ratio established in the Coinage Act of 1834.

Silverites also wanted “free coinage of silver” as authorized under the Coinage Act of 1792. Free coinage meant anyone who possessed uncoined gold could bring it to one of the United States Mints and trade it for its equivalent in gold coins, less a small deduction – Free Silver advocates wanted the mints to accept silver on the same principle. These inflationary measures would have increased the amount of money in circulation and helped debtors pay off their debts, while harming creditors and savers.

Opponents to the Free Silver movement were mostly the financial establishments of the Northeast – the moneylenders, creditors, banks, leaseholders, and landlords – they backed a monometallic gold standard – the expanding economy had constrained the money supply available on a gold only standard, this had made the dollar stronger and decreased prices, opponents of Free Silver wanted to keep it that way.

The Republican Party was against Free Silver, the party’s position being that the best way to national prosperity was “sound money.” Republicans favored a continued strong dollar, which rewarded savers and creditors.

Battle lines were drawn, on one side were the Free Silver proponents – miners, farmers, debtors and Democrats – who wanted a bimetallic standard, the free coinage of silver and inflation. On the other side of the line were the creditors and Republicans who wanted to keep a strong currency using a gold only standard.

Intense pressure caused the U.S. government to agree to the Bland-Allison Act of 1878, this act directed the Treasury to purchase silver at a high price. The Sherman Silver Purchase Act was enacted on July 14, 1890. It didn’t authorize the free and unlimited coinage of silver that the Free Silver supporters wanted, but it did increase, by a large amount, the amount of silver the government was required to purchase every month.

Using a special issue of Treasury Notes that could be redeemed for either silver, or gold, the US government became the second largest silver buyer in the world – after the government of India.

By 1893 the US was in one of the worst depressions in American history and people were turning in the new Treasury Notes for gold and depleting the government’s gold reserves. President Grover Cleveland (R) forced the repeal of both the Bland-Allison and Sherman Silver Purchase Acts.

Democrats failed to win any presidential elections in which the Free Silver issue was front and center. When a Democrat, Woodrow Wilson, won in 1912 he signed into law, in 1913, the Federal Reserve Act that created and set up the Democrats version of a Federal Reserve – having congressional oversight.

The Republicans had their own Aldrich Plan for a Federal Reserve – it gave control to private bankers. There was strong opposition, mostly from rural and western states. They feared that the Fed would become a tool of rich and powerful eastern bankers based in New York City – the “Money Trust.”

In 1913 the Pujo Committee Report concluded that a group of influential financial leaders had gained control of US manufacturing, transportation, mining, telecommunications and financial markets – no less than eighteen different major financial corporations were under control of a cartel led by J.P Morgan, George F Baker and James Stillman.

Silver metal was recognized as more precious than gold when bartering in ancient Egypt – this recorded as early as 930 BC. Silver’s use as money in coin form began around 2600 years ago. Silver and gold have stood the test of time, as a medium of exchange, a storehouse of value and a safe haven in times of turmoil.

Back to the future where we find the little bit of history, just presented, made even more fascinating by events unfolding in a Far Far Away place – Washington. Interesting to read a bit about the history of both sides in the now concluded debt ceiling debate.

One might think that the recent drama over the debt ceiling involves one side wanting to increase or maintain spending with the other side wanting to drastically cut spending, but that is far from the truth. In spite of the rhetoric being thrown around, the real debate is over how much government spending will increase.

No plan under serious consideration cuts spending in the way you and I think about it. Instead, the “cuts” being discussed are illusory, and are not cuts from current amounts being spent, but cuts in projected spending increases. This is akin to a family “saving” $100,000 in expenses by deciding not to buy a Lamborghini, and instead getting a fully loaded Mercedes, when really their budget dictates that they need to stick with their perfectly serviceable Honda. But this is the type of math Washington uses to mask the incriminating truth about their unrepentant plundering of the American people.” Ron Paul (R)

Only a third of mined silver production comes from the production of primary silver mines, the rest comes from mined production of other metals, namely zinc and lead, 25% is from production of copper mines (Chile has very little primary silver production but is the fifth largest silver producing country) and the rest is from production at gold mines.

Mined silver production rose by 2.5 percent to 735.9 M oz in 2010 – gains came from primary silver mines and as a by-product of lead/zinc mining activity. Silver produced as a by-product of gold mining fell four percent in 2010.

Tom Albanese, CEO Rio Tinto Group, the world’s second largest mining company, said that the copper industry has struggled to maintain supply because of declining ore grades (ore grades averaged 0.76 percent copper content in 2009, compared with 0.9 percent in 2002), delays to mine expansions and disruption from strikes. Christine Meilton, chief consultant at CRU Group said there was a risk some copper projects, expected to come on stream in 2012 and 2013, will be delayed because of red tape, poor infrastructure and funding difficulties.

A Report by the APS Panel on Public Affairs and the Materials Research Society coined the term “energy-critical element” (ECE) to describe a class of chemical elements that currently appear critical to one or more new, energy related technologies.

Energy-related systems are typically materials intensive. As new technologies are widely deployed, significant quantities of the elements required to manufacture them will be needed. However, many of these unfamiliar elements are not presently mined, refined, or traded in large quantities, and, as a result, their availability might be constrained by many complex factors. A shortage of these energy-critical elements (ECEs) could significantly inhibit the adoption of otherwise game-changing energy technologies. This, in turn, would limit the competitiveness of U.S. industries and the domestic scientific enterprise and, eventually, diminish the quality of life in the United States.”

The focus of the report was on energy technologies with the potential for large-scale deployment so the elements they listed are energy critical: silver was listed as one of their choices based on its use in advanced photovoltaic solar cells, especially thin film photovoltaics.

Conclusion

Silver investment rose by 40% during 2010 to 279.3 million ounces, almost double the amount for 2009. Demand increased to 167.0 M ozs (+5.1%) for jewelry and 101.3 M ozs (+22%) for coins. Other major usage categories are photography (72.7 M ozs, down 8.3%), and silverware (50.3 million ozs).

Industrial use accounted for the bulk of silver fabrication demand in 2010,  487.4 million ounces, up from 403.8 million ounces in 2009 – an annual increase of 20.7 percent.

Total silver demand in 2010 jumped 14.59 percent while the silver surplus – the difference between supply and fabrication demand – dropped 12 percent to 173.4 million ounces. Primary silver mining cash costs were unchanged at $5.27 an ounce in 2010.

The Federal Reserve first issued its debt based paper money in 1913. Since then the US dollar has lost plus 95% of its value. The history of fiat money has always been one of failure. The US dollar was backed by gold and silver, then just gold – the dollar use to be the rock all the worlds currencies were anchored to but when it became fiat, all the worlds currencies became fiat.

The Hong Kong Mercantile Exchange (HKMEx) has recently announced that they will roll out Yuan denominated silver futures contracts. This exchange will:

  • Grant Asian investors direct access to silver futures
  • Blunt U.S. dominance in silver trading by reducing the importance and influence of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME)

According to the HKMEx China is already becoming a  factor in the silver market. From 2008 to 2010, silver demand soared 67% in China and China accounted for nearly 23% of global silver consumption in 2010.

In 2010 India consumed 2,800 tonnes of silver, 2011’s consumption is forecast to rise to 5,000 tonnes. India’s state-owned trading company -  Minerals and Metals Trading Corporation (MMTC) said it would import 1,200 tons of  Silver in 2011-12 as demand for the precious metal is rising fast.

The rising demand for silver bullion products with 99.99% fineness has started a new trend – silver denominated notes reminiscent of turn of the century American silver certificates are becoming quite popular in India, the difference is, these Indian notes are actually made of silver.

The silver notes closely resemble the country´s rupee and are very popular among the country´s younger generation and rapidly growing middle class. The nominal value of each note corresponds to its respective weight in silver – a note with a face value of 10 rupees is equal to 10 grams of silver.

Silver should be on every investors radar screen. Is it on yours?

If not, maybe it should be.

Richard (Rick) Mills /> rick@aheadoftheherd.com /> www.aheadoftheherd.com

If you’re interested in learning more about the junior resource sector, bio-tech and technology sectors please come and visit us at www.aheadoftheherd.com

Site membership and our AOTH newsletter are free. No credit card or personal information is asked for.

***

Richard is host of Aheadoftheherd.com and invests in the junior resource sector. His articles have been published on over 300 websites, including: Wall Street Journal, SafeHaven, Market Oracle, USAToday, National Post, Stockhouse, Lewrockwell, Uranium Miner, Casey Research, 24hgold, Vancouver Sun, SilverBearCafe, Infomine, Huffington Post, Mineweb, 321Gold, Kitco, Gold-Eagle, The Gold/Energy Reports, Calgary Herald, Resource Investor, Mining.com, Forbes, FNArena, Uraniumseek, and Financial Sense.

***

Legal Notice / Disclaimer

This document is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe for any investment. Richard Mills has based this document on information obtained from sources he believes to be reliable but which has not been independently verified; Richard Mills makes no guarantee, representation or warranty and accepts no responsibility or liability as to its accuracy or completeness. Expressions of opinion are those of Richard Mills only and are subject to change without notice. Richard Mills assumes no warranty, liability or guarantee for the current relevance, correctness or completeness of any information provided within this Report and will not be held liable for the consequence of reliance upon any opinion or statement contained herein or any omission. Furthermore, I, Richard Mills, assume no liability for any direct or indirect loss or damage or, in particular, for lost profit, which you may incur as a result of the use and existence of the information provided within this Report.

Richard Mills does not own shares of any companies mentioned in this report.

Alloy, Copper, Gold, Lead, Nickel, Nonferrous Metal, Platinum, Rare Earth, Silver, Tin

August 1, 2011

Critical Raw Materials

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Richard (Rick) Mills /> Ahead of the Herd

As a general rule, the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information

A critical or strategic material is a commodity whose lack of availability during a national emergency would seriously affect the economic, industrial, and defensive capability of a country.

The report “Critical Raw Materials for the EU” listed 14 raw materials which they deemed critical to the European Union (EU): antimony, beryllium, cobalt, fluorspar, gallium, germanium, graphite, indium, magnesium, niobium, platinum group metals, rare earths, tantalum and tungsten.

The French Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières rates high tech metals as critical, or not, based on three criteria:

  • Possibility (or not) of substitution
  • Irreplaceable functionality
  • Potential supply risks

Demand is increasing for critical metals due to:

  • Economic growth of developing countries
  • Emergence of new technologies and products

Access to raw materials at competitive prices has become essential to the functioning of all industrialized economies. As we move forward developing and developed countries will, with their:

  • Massive population booms
  • Infrastructure build out and urbanization plans
  • Modernization programs for existing, tired and worn out infrastructure

Continue to place extraordinary demands on our ability to access and distribute the planets natural resources.

Threats to access and distribution of these commodities could include:

  • Political instability of supplier countries
  • The manipulation of supplies
  • The competition over supplies
  • Attacks on supply infrastructure
  • Accidents and natural disasters
  • Climate change

Accessing a sustainable, and secure, supply of raw materials is going to become the number one priority for all countries. Increasingly we are going to see countries ensuring their own industries have first rights of access to internally produced commodities and they will look for such privileged access from other countries.

Numerous countries are taking steps to safeguard their own supply by:

  • Stopping or slowing the export of natural resources
  • Shutting down traditional supply markets
  • Buying companies for their deposits
  • Project finance tied to off take agreements

Many countries classify cobalt as a critical or a strategic metal.

The US is the world’s largest consumer of cobalt and the US also considers cobalt a strategic metal. The US has no domestic production – the United States is 100% dependent on imports for its supply of primary cobalt – currently about 15% of U.S. cobalt consumption is from recycled scrap, resulting in a net import reliance of 85%.

Although cobalt is one of the 30 most abundant elements within the earth’s crust it’s low concentration (.002%) means it’s usually produced as a by-product – cobalt is mainly obtained as a by-product of copper and nickel mining activities.

Today 40% of the cobalt consumed in the world originated as a by-product from copper production in the West African country of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) – cobalt production in most other countries is a by-product of nickel mining.

The copper deposits in the Katanga Province of the Democratic Republic of the Congo are the top producers of cobalt and the political situation in the Congo influences the price of cobalt significantly. The politically unstable Democratic Republic of Congo contains half the world’s cobalt supply and represents the lion’s share of anticipated future cobalt supply – the DRC’s 2007 output was equal to the combined production of cobalt by Canada, Australia and Zambia.

In a nine billion dollar joint venture with the DRC China got the rights to the vast copper and cobalt resources of the North Kivu in exchange for providing $6 billion worth of road construction, two hydroelectric dams, hospitals, schools and railway links to southern Africa, to Katanga and to the Congo Atlantic port at Matadi. The other $3 billion is to be invested by China in development of new mining areas. Approximately half of  known global cobalt reserves are in the DRC, and close to 40%-50% of incremental cobalt production, over the next five years, is anticipated to emanate from the DRC.

At 19.7 percent of global supply Zambia is the world’s second largest producer of copper-cobalt. According to a recently released report by the Zambian Central Bank cobalt production rose to 2,236 tons in the first quarter of 2011 from 1,989 tons last year, exports increased to 2,279 from 1,977.

China is extremely short of cobalt concentrates and needs to import cobalt concentrates in large amounts every year. The leading global producers of refined cobalt are China (39%), Finland (15%) and Canada (8%). China is a leading supplier of cobalt imports to the United States.

The cobalt market is small in comparison with other base metals. Consumers purchase cobalt through negotiated agreements, bids, and open markets from producers, traders and to a lesser degree, government stockpiles and private inventories.

Uses

Cobalt is a strategic and critical metal used in many diverse industrial and military applications.

  • Super alloys
  • Renewable Energy Re-usable energy storage systems
  • Wear resistant alloys
  • Magnets
  • Binder Material
  • Thermal spray coatings
  • Orthopedics
  • Life Science
  • Catalyst in de-sulfurizing crude oil and as a catalyst in hydrogenation, oxidation, reduction, and synthesis of hydrocarbons.
  • Gas to liquid technology (GLT)
  • Other Uses – Drying agents in paints, de-colorizers, dyes, pigments, and oxidizers. Promotes adherence of enamel to steel, and steel to rubber in steel belted radial tires

Conclusion

China seemingly has most of the DRC’s production of cobalt locked up, that’s up to 40% of global mined cobalt.

Cobalt is classified as a strategic/critical metal.

With the recent strong support for electric vehicles the use of cobalt in this sector alone has led to a formidable demand for the element and the US cannot continue to depend on its cobalt being supplied mostly from China.

There is no doubt in this author’s mind that cobalt’s profile will continue growing in the coming months and years.

Is cobalt on your radar screen?

If not maybe it should be.

Richard (Rick) Mills /> rick@aheadoftheherd.com /> www.aheadoftheherd.com

If you’re interested in learning more about the junior resource, bio-tech and technology sectors please come and visit us at www.aheadoftheherd.com

Site membership, and our AOTH newsletter, are free. No credit card or personal information is asked for.

***

Richard is host of Aheadoftheherd.com and invests in the junior resource sector. His articles have been published on over 300 websites, including: Wall Street Journal, SafeHaven, Market Oracle, USAToday, National Post, Stockhouse, Lewrockwell, Uranium Miner, Casey Research, 24hgold, Vancouver Sun, SilverBearCafe, Infomine, Huffington Post, Mineweb, 321Gold, Kitco, Gold-Eagle, The Gold/Energy Reports, Calgary Herald, Resource Investor, Mining.com, Forbes, FNArena, Uraniumseek, and Financial Sense.

***

Legal Notice / Disclaimer

This document is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe for any investment. Richard Mills has based this document on information obtained from sources he believes to be reliable but which has not been independently verified; Richard Mills makes no guarantee, representation or warranty and accepts no responsibility or liability as to its accuracy or completeness. Expressions of opinion are those of Richard Mills only and are subject to change without notice. Richard Mills assumes no warranty, liability or guarantee for the current relevance, correctness or completeness of any information provided within this Report and will not be held liable for the consequence of reliance upon any opinion or statement contained herein or any omission. Furthermore, I, Richard Mills, assume no liability for any direct or indirect loss or damage or, in particular, for lost profit, which you may incur as a result of the use and existence of the information provided within this Report.

For site advertising rates contact: rick@aheadoftheherd.com

Richard Mills does not own shares of any companies mentioned in this report.

Copper, Metal News, Nonferrous Metal, Nonferrous Metals Prices, Uncategorized

July 29, 2011

Metals continue climb through copper strike

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Metals prices pushed upward amid the same unresolved concerns that moved China’s futures markets Tuesday, including the ongoing strike at world’s largest copper mine and the unbroken stalemate in the US over raising the country’s debt limit.

The most active copper contract, for October delivery, rose about 0.6 percent on Wednesday to settle at 72,830 yuan ($11,307.08) per ton on the Shanghai Futures Exchange. The contract jumped 0.8 percent at the market’s opening, following the rise in international copper prices overnight.

The benchmark three-month copper contract on the London Metal Exchange rose 1.7 percent in Tuesday’s session, but then retreated on Wednesday. It was trading at $9,821 per ton, down 0.2 percent, at 3:15 pm Beijing Time on Wednesday.

SHFE gold prices rose steadily on Wednesday, with the most traded contract rising 0.4 percent to settle at 336.84 yuan per gram. The price of gold for immediate delivery hit a record high of $1,624.55 an ounce on the COMEX on Wednesday.

Other SHFE base metals benefited from the rise in international prices overnight, with the most active aluminum contract spiking 1.9 percent to settle at 18,210 yuan per ton. The contract was up more than 3.5 percent for the week due to strong fundamentals, according to Tong Changzheng, an aluminum analyst with Huatai Great Wall Futures.

A bulletin on the China Nonferrous Metal Industry Association website highlighted a rumor that may have influenced aluminum futures, according to an analyst surnamed Yuan with Shanghai East Asia Futures.

The bulletin said that Indonesia may impose export restrictions on aluminum ore to China, though probably not this year.

“China, the largest consumer of aluminum, imports 80 of its aluminum ore from Indonesia, so the change could constrict supply,” Yuan said.

Zinc for October delivery rose 1.3 percent to settle at 19,010 yuan per ton.

The September delivery lead contract gained about 1 percent to settle at 17,740 yuan per ton at close on Wednesday.

Copper, Nonferrous Metal, Nonferrous Metals Prices

New China copper capacity seen offseting impact of old unit closures

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Chinese copper industry experts believe that the government’s recent decision to shut outdated copper facilities will be offset by the ongoing expansion of domestic refined copper output capacity, market participants in China said Thursday.

“We see little market impact from the elimination of outdated capacity due to the ongoing copper expansion projects,” a copper analyst with Beijing Antaike, the state-run metals consultancy said, without elaborating on the ongoing projects.

China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said July 12 that it would eliminate total outdated copper smelting capacity of 425,000 mt/year by the end of 2011.

Meanwhile, China last year added refined copper output capacity of 590,000 mt/year, lifting national refined copper capacity to 5.88 million mt/year as of end-2010, figures from Ministry of Commerce showed.

Separately, in Zhejiang, a source with the subsidiary of key Chinese nonferrous metals trader Wanxiang Group said China was expected to add 800,000-900,000 mt/year new copper capacity this year. “It’s big enough to offset the impact from the outdated capacity shuttering,” the source said.

In South China, a source with the subsidiary of a Chinese copper smelter said: “Before the state’s announcement, some companies with outdated facilities had already ceased using theirs, so we see minimal impact from the shuttering news.”

In another development, Chinese copper industry sources said the recent talk in China about using aluminum to replace copper due to rising copper prices would not have a significant impact on the copper market, citing the difficulties in using aluminum to fully substitute copper and lack of market acceptance.

“Due to the performance factor, aluminum has proved unable to replace copper in many cases, so we don’t see a major impact from the substitution talk on the copper market,” the Antaike source said.

The Wanxiang source said that some air-conditioner makers in China were trying to use aluminum to replace copper in the connecting pipes, but as aluminum pipes don’t function as well as copper ones, the replacement was not popular. “As air-conditioners are inexpensive, consumers would rather buy those made using better material,” he said.

The Antaike source said China’s copper consumption was expected to grow 8% to 7.35 million mt in 2011 from 6.8 million mt in 2010. However, other analysts predicted China’s national import volume in 2011 would be less than the 2010 levels, citing rising domestic refined copper output.

“We see China’s copper import volume to rise to around 200,000 mt/month by the fourth quarter of this year, when the boom domestic copper consumption season comes, but annual import volume this year should be less than last year’s on rising domestic refined copper output,” the Wanxiang source said.

China imported 178,638 mt refined copper in June this year, down 16% on year, customs figures showed, while in 2010, China imported 2.92 million mt refined copper in 2010, down 8% from 2009.

China produced 2.644 million mt refined copper in the first half of this year, up 14% on year, figures from State Statistics Bureau showed.

London Metals Exchange three-month copper prices were $9,644-9,805/mt over Monday-Wednesday, much higher than prices of of less than $9,000/mt in December last year.

Aluminum News, Copper, Nonferrous Metal, Nonferrous Metals Prices

Aluminum up as speculators shift sights from copper

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Aluminum prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange continued to soar on Thursday as investors eyed the metal as an alternative to copper.

The most active aluminum contract, for October delivery, rose about 1.4 percent to settle at 18,455 yuan ($2,860.58) per ton. The contract was up 4.9 percent since the previous Friday, far more than other base metals. For example, the most traded SHFE copper contract was up 1 percent for the week.

Aluminum fundamentals have been strong lately, which has attracted speculators betting that prices will rise, according to Tong Changzheng, an analyst at Huatai Great Wall Futures.

Over the last few months, several analysts have told the Global Times that aluminum’s fundamentals are the strongest of the SHFE-traded base metals.

Some analysts have suggested that copper prices above 70,000 yuan per ton are just too high for most buyers, especially amid the current dour global economic landscape.

The October delivery copper contract slipped about 0.2 percent on Thursday to settle at 72,710 yuan per ton, bouncing back after falling 0.6 percent when the market opened.

The benchmark three-month copper contract on the London Metal Exchange lost 0.4 percent in Wednesday’s session, before inching up on Thursday. It was trading at $9,792 per ton, up 0.1 percent when the SHFE closed.

With a limited upside for copper, investors may have turned to aluminum.

But if this is the case, it won’t be much of a trend. SHFE aluminum rapid rise this week is based on a favorable short-term supply and demand basis, said an analyst surnamed Yuan with Shanghai East Asia Futures.

“Right now, investors show a preference for a short-term imbalance between supply and demand because of the bleak economic prospects,” Yuan said.

Zinc for October delivery slipped 0.1 percent to settle at 19,010 yuan per ton. The September delivery lead contract gained about 0.5 percent to settle at 17,645 yuan per ton.

Copper, Nonferrous Metal, Nonferrous Metals Prices

June 30, 2011

Japan’s rolled copper rose 2.4% in May

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Japan’s output of rolled copper products rose 2.4% in May from April as strong demand for environmentally friendly air conditioners offset weakness in chips and cars.

The Japan Copper and Brass Association said that rolled copper output totalled 72,328 tonnes in May on a seasonally adjusted basis nearly flat from a year earlier.

An industry official said that output has been almost flat on a year-on-year basis since March, meaning the magnitude 9.0 earthquake during the month has not had a big impact on Japan’s rolled copper output. But it is clear that air conditioner makers are ramping up output ahead of the peak demand season which helped offset soft demand from the semiconductor and auto sectors.

Demand for copper, used in a wide range of items including construction materials, computer chips and car parts is often seen as a measure of economic activity.

The Japan Electric Wire and Cable Makers’ Association said last week that cable copper wire and cable shipments in May inched up from a year earlier to 51,200 tonnes. That was the first YoY rise in three months but the third lowest level for the month of May in 35 years as exports declined in the wake of a slowdown in the Chinese economy.

Japanese manufacturers have been recovering from the effects of the March 11 earthquake and tsunami, making progress in restoring production and supply chains wrecked by the disaster.

The government last week upgraded its view of the economy’s performance and outlook for the first time in 4 months following the previous week’s upgrade in the Bank of Japan’s view of the economy. But a slowdown of the global economy, particularly China, the world’s biggest consumer of copper and Japan’s biggest export market is a worrying sign.

Copper, Nonferrous Metal, Nonferrous Metals Prices

Japan’s refined copper exports plunged 52 percent

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Japan’s refined copper exports plunged 52 percent in May from a year earlier to 23,764 tonnes for an eighth straight month of year-on-year declines, Ministry of Finance data showed on Wednesday, reflecting slowing demand
from China, the world’s top copper consumer.

But exports inched up 0.8 percent from April, with China’s share also improving to 36 percent in May from 29 percent in April.

China accounted for 48.5 percent of Japanese refined copper exports in March.

China’s imports of refined copper fell 6.9 percent in May to a 30-month low after falling 16.6 percent in April on ample domestic stocks and a slowdown in demand.

Taiwan accounted for 32 percent of Japan’s exports in May, steady from April. Indonesia and Thailand are also key markets for Japan’s copper.

Demand for copper, used in utensils, construction materials and computer chips, is often seen as a gauge of economic activity.

As Japanese manufacturers began recovering from production disruptions after the massive March 11 earthquake, Japan’s output of rolled copper products rose 2.4 percent in May from April, helped by strong demand for environmentally friendly air conditioners, which offset weakness in chips and cars.

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