The past few months have been very difficult to navigate for retail investors and institutional money managers. The huge week to week price swings and increased volatility have made the current market conditions exceptionally difficult to maneuver. Day traders are about the only group of market participants that outperform during periods such as we have seen since the beginning of August.

Before I jump into the analysis, I would like to point out to readers that the S&P 500 Index (SPX) has rallied from 1,075 on October 4th to 1224.50 on October 14th. The S&P 500 has rallied almost 150 handles or 14% from the lows to Friday’s close in 10 calendar days. As an options trader and a market participant, I trade the market that I see, not the market that I want. With that said, ask yourself this question: Does a healthy financial construct rally 14% in 10 calendar days?

To put the recent price action into perspective, since the beginning of the year 2000 the S&P 500 would have had a poor track record on an annualized basis when compared to the past 10 calendar days’ trough to peak performance. Only in the years 2003, 2006, 2009, & 2010 would an investor have been able to best the previous 10 calendar days’ performance (Performance data courtesy of Wikipedia). The most amazing thing about the recent price action is that the S&P 500 Index is still underwater for the year even after rallying roughly 14%.

At this point two scenarios are likely to play out. One scenario involves a rally on the S&P 500 towards the key 1,250 – 1,270 resistance zone which is outlined on the chart below. The recent price action in the S&P 500 has been volatile and at this point it has gone nearly parabolic. The daily chart of the S&P 500 Index is shown below:

The resistance level shown in the chart above outlines the key 1,250 – 1,270 resistance zone that will be tested if the S&P 500 can breakout above the 1,230 resistance level. However, it is critical for traders to recognize that probabilities are starting to favor the short side. Let me explain.

If the S&P 500 is able to rally into the 1,250 – 1,270 level it would represent a gain of less than 4%. The bears will vigorously defend the S&P 1,250 – 1,270 resistance zone and it is unlikely that price action will be able to take out that resistance zone on the first breakout attempt.

With only 4% upside, the odds of some sort of correction are favorable at this point in time. Whether the correction begins early next week or whether we have to wait until the key resistance zone is tested, sellers will step back into the driver’s seat in the not-so-distant future.

McClellan Oscillator

A few data points that exemplify the overbought status of the S&P 500 are shown below. The first indicator is the McClellan Oscillator that my trading buddy Chris Vermeulen pointed out to me.

50 Period Moving Average Momentum Chart

The momentum chart shown below courtesy of www.barchart.com illustrates the number of domestic equities trading above their key 50 period moving averages:

Both charts above are warning signs that this rally is starting to get a bit overheated. I would point out that the past two times the McClellan Oscillator and the momentum chart peaked a nasty selloff occurred shortly thereafter. The one point that I would like to make clear to readers is that each time both indicators peaked prices eventually went much lower.

The evidence would lead astute traders to believe a top was near. The more arduous details about the future of the S&P 500’s price action revolve around where the topping formation will be. Will the S&P 500 find resistance on a second test of the key 1,230 resistance level?

The other scenario would involve higher prices next week that eventually reach the key 1,260 – 1,270 area on the S&P 500. Will price work roughly 4% higher before confirming a top at the key breakdown level that initiated the selloff back in August?

Conclusion

I am of the opinion that a topping formation or pattern is likely near, but the location of the top is unknown to me presently. More importantly the forthcoming selloff resolution will be very telling about the current trend of the marketplace.

The most constructive price action that we could see would be a selloff that results in a higher low on the daily chart. If that type of price action plays out a new bullish run could begin. However, if we form a top and price action breaks down below recent lows it would not be surprising to see another lower low form which would put the trend squarely in favor of the bears.

The most important aspect of coming weeks will not necessarily be where a top forms, but if and when a selloff begins. Ultimately the depth, momentum, and ferocity of the selloff are more important than where the topping pattern begins.

At this point I have no purely directional trades on the books, but I am developing a laundry list of shorts that make sense. After all, volatility has declined quite a bit and puts are starting to get a whole lot cheaper!

In closing, a top is likely in the cards in the near future. However, the strength and momentum of the forthcoming selloff will tell the real story about the future direction of stock prices. The next few weeks should be quite interesting!!

Subscribers of OTS have pocketed more than 150% return in the past two months. If you’d like to stay ahead of the market using My Low Risk Option Strategies and Trades check out OTS at http://www.optionstradingsignals.com/specials/index.php and take advantage of our free occasional trade ideas or a 66% coupon to sign up for daily market analysis, videos and Option Trades each week.

JW Jones

This material should not be considered investment advice. J.W. Jones is not a registered investment advisor. Under no circumstances should any content from this article or the OptionsTradingSignals.com website be used or interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell any type of security or commodity contract. This material is not a solicitation for a trading approach to financial markets. Any investment decisions must in all cases be made by the reader or by his or her registered investment advisor. This information is for educational purposes only.

Last week, the History Channel’s series Decoded, took on the question of whether Fort Knox actually contains any gold.  It is available on Youtube in three parts, in case you missed it.  Admittedly I had pretty low expectations for the mainstream media’s treatment of the topic.  Of course the question is never answered, but by the time it was over I was reasonably impressed at to how well they managed to communicate the crux of the issue at hand.  Namely that our entire economic and financial systems are kept afloat by nothing more than confidence that the dollar will hold some future value. Confidence that would likely be shattered if it were revealed that the United States was not the largest holder of gold in the world.

It was interesting to watch the progression of reactions by the hosts as they gradually came to understand the precarious nature of our current situation.  What initially began as quirky bemusement in reaction to claims of gold market rigging by GATA’s Chris Powell, eventually transform into a round table discussion in which they voice genuine fear and concern over the implications of the missing gold.

It’s good to see the topic being presented to the public, because the problem, and solution, are easily grasped by even the most casual observer.  If the gold exists then show us.  What could be simpler?  The fact that there exists a clandestine body of control that steadfastly refuses any oversight, begs the question:  What are they hiding?

A lot of eyes were watching the Slovakian Parliament around the closing bell today as they voted on the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF). The first vote failed to pass the pending legislation, but members of the opposition party have indicated that they will vote for the bill in a second scheduled vote.

The S&P 500 E-Mini futures contract has not sold off sharply on the news, but the trap door risk for equity traders is that the second vote comes up short and the legislation fails unexpectedly. The marketplace is expecting the second vote to pass without issue and if a different scenario plays out selling pressure could become extreme potentially. With earnings season now upon us, there is plenty of headline risk to go around and this Slovakian situation just adds more complexity to the news flow.

We have seen the S&P 500 Index rally more than 10% in five trading sessions which could potentially mean we have more downside work to accomplish before probing higher. The flip side of that argument is that prices continue to rally and push towards key resistance levels overhead. At this point in time, I do not have an edge for a directional trade so I am sitting on the sidelines presently. I do have a few time decay based trades in place, but they do not have a directional bias so my book is flat here.

The S&P 500 is a tough buy after a 10% rally in such a short period of time, but the strength and momentum are tough to short. The buyers seem to be higher and the sellers appear to be lower which complicates a potential entry even further. Presently there appears to be two possible scenarios:

Bullish Scenario

The daily chart of the S&P 500 Index is shown below with key overhead resistance levels illustrated on the chart and the potential price action in coming days:

Bearish Scenario

The daily chart of the S&P 500 Index is shown below with key support levels and the potential price action if price works lower:    

Overall, I do not have a real edge on the S&P 500 at this point. A pullback makes some sense here, but defined risk metrics and a trading plan must be used to reduce risk. Regardless of the price direction traders are considering, this is a situation where proper position sizing and stop orders can allow a trader to take on a defined risk that he/she is comfortable with.

This market has been tough to trade for several weeks. The price action has been choppy and volatility levels have been elevated since the early part of August. This type of market environment chops up a lot of traders and it sucks bulls and bears into the price action late in the game opening the door for potentially devastating losses if risk is not properly defined. My Trading partner Chris Vermeulen pocketed over 38% gain during these choppy times using bull and bear ETFs with is subscribers.

As an option trader familiar with a variety of spreads, recently I have been utilizing the elevated volatility levels to sell option premium and use the passage of time as a primary profit engine for my open positions. Currently I have 3 open positions which are all taking advantage of the passage of time as a profit engine.

Back on 9/26 I entered a $DIA Iron Condor Spread to take advantage of heightened volatility and capitalize on time decay leading up to the October monthly option expiration. On 10/06 I was able to close the $DIA position to lock in 15% based on maximum risk. Even though price action was excessively volatile during the past several weeks, my $DIA trade was never a major concern in terms of price action. No adjustments were necessary and members and I pocketed some relatively quick money watching the days pass by.

Gold Analysis

The recent price action in gold has been equally as tough to trade as the S&P 500 Index. After rallying sharply into early September, gold prices plummeted and price action has been consolidating ever since. Similar to the price action in the S&P 500, gold prices have just chopped around for several weeks. Gold is currently trading in a bear flag formation which if triggered could result in additional downside.

In the short-term more downside is always possible, but in the longer-term I think higher prices are probable for both gold and silver as this money printing binge will one day end and inflationary pressures may present themselves at that time. The weekly chart of gold futures is shown below:

As can be seen above, gold has traded in a long term rising channel for over a year. Back in August and September gold prices broke out to the upside of the rising channel and went parabolic. In the beginning of September, gold prices sold off sharply back down into the previous rising channel. As it stands right now, gold prices remain near the upper resistance level of that channel and have not tested the lower support line since February. 

If gold prices do begin to rollover in the days and weeks ahead, a logical entry point would be a test of the lower channel. The price level I would be watching for would be around $1,500 an ounce. If we get to that area, I would not be shocked to see an overthrow of that support level and a test of the 1,480 price level before reversing to the upside.

The other side of this story is that the U.S. Dollar Index falls out of favor again and its price gets crushed. If the U.S. Dollar gets hammered lower, it would make sense that U.S. domestic equities would rally along with other risk assets such as gold, silver, and oil. Right now I do not have a clear short term bias, but in the intermediate to longer term cycles I remain quite bullish. If the gold price does work back down to that support level, I will be looking to get long. Another possible long entry would present itself on a breakout to the upside back out of the upward sloping channel.

Gold is quite volatile and is impacted by a litany of outside forces such as foreign currency and the U.S. Dollar. For right now the short term bias could be to the downside, but when this period of malaise in the yellow metal ends the next bullish phase of this move higher is going to be quite strong.

As I have said many times, sometimes the best trade is no trade at all. Right now I do not have an edge in either the S&P 500 or gold so I am just going to sit and watch price action patiently while looking for high probability, low risk setups to emerge.

Subscribers of OTS have pocketed more than 150% return in the past two months. If you’d like to stay ahead of the market using My Low Risk Option Strategies and Trades check out OTS at: www.optionstradingsignals.com/profitable-options-solutions.php and take advantage of our free occasional trade ideas and our free options trading strategy book.

JW Jones

This material should not be considered investment advice. J.W. Jones is not a registered investment advisor. Under no circumstances should any content from this article or the OptionsTradingSignals.com website be used or interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell any type of security or commodity contract. This material is not a solicitation for a trading approach to financial markets. Any investment decisions must in all cases be made by the reader or by his or her registered investment advisor. This information is for educational purposes only.

Obama still doesn’t get it – Government can’t create economic growth, only prevent it.

Can I make a small request? Before we go throwing more good money (American Jobs Act) after bad (American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009) can we review some basic economics?

Let’s start with what economic growth is and what it isn’t. Contrary to what the evening news would have you believe, GDP is not a measure of economic growth, as GDP is positively impacted by reckless government deficit spending. Politicians like this fact because all they have to do to claim success – in the short term – is to waste more money than the last guy. To date, no president has been more successful in this regard than Obama.

So what is economic growth really? Very simply, economic growth occurs when the overall productivity of society increases. In other words, the average individual’s labor produces more goods and services than it did previously. As more “stuff” is produced by the same amount of people, that “stuff” becomes more affordable. On average, the standard of living increases. That it positive economic growth.

The key to maximizing this productive output is to correctly align capital with the needs of the market. The good news is that this is exactly what the free market does all by itself. Profit is the critical signal that directs resources to where they are needed the most. Excessive profits indicate that demand has greatly outstripped supply. And it is these excessive profits that attract competing capital to provide additional supply and lower prices. Hence the old axiom, high prices are the best cure for high prices.

Another wonderful attribute of a free market is that those who are most skilled at increasing productivity are rewarded with the most new capital to deploy. Those who prove to be incompetent in such endeavors are swiftly punished through insolvency, as no new capital comes their way.

I consider the electronics and computer industries to be the closest thing to a free market that exists today. At least in part because government bureaucrats are unable to keep up with its complexity and rate of change.

Take a look at those who run Apple Computer. They have been extremely successful at aligning their capital investments to produce what the market wants. As a result, the market rewards their competence with additional capital to deploy. Each year they use these new resources to provide better products at lower prices. Each year they create sustainable, long term jobs. The economy and society benefit from their success.

Now let’s compare this to how the government creates jobs: Step 1) borrow money. Step 2) create make work projects. Step 3) pay people to complete said projects.

There’s really only one thing that you need to understand to shatter the whole myth of government induced economic prosperity: Governments have no wealth of their own. Any money the government has, must either be collected through taxes, borrowed, or printed. But regardless of the exact mechanism, all wealth possessed by the government is capital that is deprived from the private sector.

Had this capital been allowed to remain in private hands, it would have eventually made it to those who have the demonstrated skill at creating real economic growth (increased productivity). This leads us to a fundamental understanding; the mere act of creating jobs has no fundamental link to economic growth.

It is a trivial matter for government to provide 100% employment. This is exactly what the communist Soviet Union did. However, it suffered from virtually no real economic growth. Their standard of living was horrific compared to capitalistic countries.

And so we find ourselves on the path to a reduced standard of living, as each year, more and more private capital is miss-allocated to feed such political boondoggles as the American Jobs Act. If Obama had only a modicum of economic knowledge, he would understand that the greatest thing the government could do for the economy would be to slash its spending and simply get out of the way.

Gold bulls and inquiring minds are perplexed by last week’s mayhem in the precious metals markets. In addition to gold and silver, copper prices also went into free fall last week which is an ominous sign for the broader economy in general. We live in interesting times as geopolitical uncertainty, social acrimony, and financial collapse shape the world around us.

The situation in Europe continues to worsen and central banks and wealthy individuals are trying to find safe havens to protect their wealth. Most gold bugs believed that gold and silver would be the answer, but in this environment that hypothesis did not play out. In addition, the Federal Reserve came out with operation twist which market participants despised. Since the 3rd round of Quantitative Easing was not announced, risk assets such as the S&P 500, gold, and silver sold off sharply.

Read rest of article here… /> http://bit.ly/mPG8Ln

Gold bulls and inquiring minds are perplexed by last week’s mayhem in the precious metals markets. In addition to gold and silver, copper prices also went into free fall last week which is an ominous sign for the broader economy in general. We live in interesting times as geopolitical uncertainty, social acrimony, and financial collapse shape the world around us.

The situation in Europe continues to worsen and central banks and wealthy individuals are trying to find safe havens to protect their wealth. Most gold bugs believed that gold and silver would be the answer, but in this environment that hypothesis did not play out. In addition, the Federal Reserve came out with operation twist which market participants despised. Since the 3rd round of Quantitative Easing was not announced, risk assets such as the S&P 500, gold, and silver sold off sharply.

Read rest of article here… /> http://bit.ly/mPG8Ln

Gold will continue rising in value over the coming years for one reason: The primary buyers are purchasing physical gold for wealth preservation, and there simply isn’t enough physical gold to satisfy their appetites. The recent pullback was by no means the bursting of the gold bubble. Bubbles are characterized by months of extended exuberance and consistently higher highs—not the two- and three- hundred-dollar corrections we’ve seen twice in the past few weeks. Such pullbacks are healthy as they indicate gold has much, much farther to go.

You can read the rest of artice here…

http://bit.ly/qTVEfH

Gold will continue rising in value over the coming years for one reason: The primary buyers are purchasing physical gold for wealth preservation, and there simply isn’t enough physical gold to satisfy their appetites. The recent pullback was by no means the bursting of the gold bubble. Bubbles are characterized by months of extended exuberance and consistently higher highs—not the two- and three- hundred-dollar corrections we’ve seen twice in the past few weeks. Such pullbacks are healthy as they indicate gold has much, much farther to go.

You can read the rest of artice here…

http://bit.ly/qTVEfH

Only 5 short months ago the S&P 500 was trading at the 2011 highs around the 1,370 price level on the S&P 500 Index. Since then, the price action has devastated investors and traders alike. As of the close on Monday, the S&P 500 had worked over 270 handles lower in 5 months. The price action since September 27^th has been a bloodbath.

It is true that the S&P 500 could be carving out a double bottom on the daily chart, but I am of the opinion that there may be more work to do to the downside. We are oversold on the daily and weekly price charts, but I have yet to see the kind of panic level selling that typically precedes a price reversal. The chart below illustrates the number of stocks that are currently trading above the key 50 period moving average:

While most market participants are concerned about a trap door that causes prices to cascade lower, I am concerned that at some point news will come out that could rip the bears’ faces off. The majority of retail investors are running for cover. The sentiment levels are decidedly bearish and the last thing most traders are looking for is a rally. The contrarian trader in me cannot deny that a rally would do a lot of damage in the near future, but Mr. Market needs to suck in a few more bears in order to do the most harm.

One sound bite out of Europe could alter the price action almost instantly in favor of the bulls. The ECB could suddenly cut interest rates or announce that Eurobonds are going to be made available. Either two headlines or a combination of both headlines would most likely drive prices significantly higher.

After the nasty downside probe today, there are layers of buy stops above current price levels. If price worked high enough, the stops would be triggered and an all out rally could play out. Anything coming out of the Eurozone that appears to be either stimulative or that appears to push an ultimatum out on the time spectrum will be viewed as positive.

Often news and price action play out together at key support/resistance levels and it would make sense that some form of announcement will be made when the S&P 500 price is sitting right at a long term support level. As can be seen from the weekly chart of the S&P 500 Index ($SPX) below, the 1,008 – 1,050 price level is of critical importance.

The primary support levels I am watching on the S&P 500 if it continues lower are the 1,080 price level which should act as short term support. If that level breaks the 1,050 area will become a major support level that bulls will likely defend fervently. Additional long term support will come in around 1,008. I would be shocked to see the S&P 500 push through both the 1,050 and the 1,008 price level on the first attempt, but stranger things have happened.

If price works down to the 1,008 – 1,050 support zone it would not be shocking to see a strong reversal higher. With the recent carnage we have seen in the S&P 500, I find it hard to believe that we could see another 10 – 15% more downside before a reversal plays out. The 1,008 – 1,050 price zone seems ripe for a test, but one other scenario would be a test of the 1,080 support zone that fails intraday and by the close is regained. The chart below illustrates the two most probable scenarios:

Financial markets do not offer a sure thing, however it is without question that bulls will aggressively defend the 1,008 – 1,050 price level on the S&P 500. If that level fails, the price action is going to get far worse and an all out crash could be underway. For now, I am of the opinion we are within 7% – 8% of an intermediate term bottom which could produce a strong multi-month rally into the holiday season 

As always anything could happen, but traders need to keep their eye on both sides of the price action. A rally would do a lot of damage to the bears as well as the under-invested retail traders and investors. Ultimately the price action is in the hands of Mr. Market, but it is a well known fact that Mr. Market likes to trap traders and inflict pain on as many market participants as possible. A forthcoming rally  would offer yet another opportunity for a lot of traders to eat another slice of humble pie 

Subscribers of OTS have pocketed more than 150% return in the past two months. If you’d like to stay ahead of the market using My Low Risk Option Strategies and Trades check out OTS at http://www.optionstradingsignals.com/specials/index.php and take advantage of our free occasional trade ideas or a 66% coupon to sign up for daily market analysis, videos and Option Trades each week.

This material should not be considered investment advice. J.W. Jones is not a registered investment advisor. Under no circumstances should any content from this article or the OptionsTradingSignals.com website be used or interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell any type of security or commodity contract. This material is not a solicitation for a trading approach to financial markets. Any investment decisions must in all cases be made by the reader or by his or her registered investment advisor. This information is for educational purposes only.

It seems everyone is looking for a place to put their hard earned money as uncertainty around the globe continues to rise. Oil, Gold, and Silver which have been the hot investments for the past few years took it on the chin over the past month with oil falling 13%, gold dropping 15%, and silver with a whopping 30% decline. We did actually see sharply lower prices, but last week these oversold commodities had a bounce and recouped some of their losses.

It has been a month since I covered the dollar index in detail and back on August 31^st I pointed to a potentially large shift in the US dollar. The charts were pointing to a sizable rally which would likely send stocks and all commodities crashing lower. Since then we have seen just that and the so called safe havens (Gold, Silver, Oil) have dropped taking most investment and retirement accounts down with them. I did talk about these so called safe havens a couple weeks back stating my point of view on them. 

My Cole’s Note Summary: “I do not consider any investment vehicle a safe haven if it can drop 15% in value within 1-2 days. And I would never put a large position of my account especially a retirement account into these investments if I were over 50 yrs of age.”

So where are the big, smart, and conservative traders putting their money to work?

Let’s dig down and take a quick look at the charts…

The 20 Year Bond – Daily Chart:

US Dollar – Daily Chart:

Utility Sector (Dividend Paying Stocks) – Daily Chart:

Weekend Trading Conclusion:

In short, I feel both stocks and commodities are oversold but need more time to bottom and we may see a few more days of lower prices in the near future. I see the dollar starting to get toppy on the daily chart and once that rolls over then stocks should bottom along with gold, silver, and oil.

Once equity prices start to bounce I anticipate money to flow out of the safe haven (Bonds) and into stocks where there are much larger potential gains to be had. All this could play out in a couple days so I am keeping a very close eye on everything.

Last week we bought the inverse SP500 etf (SDS) anticipating another surge higher in the dollar which would send stocks down in value. So far we are sitting with a gain of 8.2% and the potential for another 4 – 10% if things play out as I expect. If you would like to receive my daily pre-market trading videos so you know exactly what to expect each session along with my ETF trades be sure to join my free newsletter and get my free book here: http://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/trade-money-emotions.php

Chris Vermeulen