Chris Vermeulen – www.GoldAndOilGuy.com />   /> A few weeks ago I wrote about how gold was starting to top and that everyone should expect a very sharp drop to the low $1600 area. How I came to this conclusion was though the use of inter-market analysis combining price patterns, gold futures volume, the dollar index and market sentiment. This allowed me to understand what the majority of other traders/investors were thinking and feeling. By knowing each of these market variables and crowd behavior I can accurately see into the future a few days with a high probability of success and most importantly with low downside risk.

You can view part-1 on how I properly forecasted that gold would fall sharply in August here: http://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/articles/dollar%E2%80%99s-on-the-verge-of-a-relief-rally-look-out/

At the time when I forecasted gold to reach the low $1600 area gold was still building the top pattern so I could not say how long a recovering would likely take nor did I know exactly when to re-enter a long position. But now that we have seen how gold arrived at my target price I can form a new forecast.

Spot Gold Price Forecast – Daily Chart:

The gold chart below clearly shows rising volatility along with my topping pattern of three surges to new highs. It was August 31st when I warned subscribers and my followers that gold was about to top and that everyone should be taking profits or at least tightening their stops to lock in gains. Only three days later gold topped and it has not stopped falling since.

On August 8th gold had a large opening gap to the upside. This means the price opened the next day much higher from where it closed the previous session. It’s important to note that gaps especially for gold almost always get filled within a couple months. Seeing this gave me a solid reason to think that gold should pullback to this level during the next big correction in price.

Also during the month of August gold had to pullbacks only to continue to make the third and final high. This told me that when the top is put in place was a very high probability that we see the price of gold drop below both of Augusts’ lows and that would trigger stop orders sending the market sharply lower.

Now that we are seeing the stops being flushed out of the market it means the majority of speculative traders have exited their positions.  So speculative traders who caused the large surge in gold to take place are now out. Once all the speculative traders have exited which should take place in the coming weeks or two we can expect some type of bounce or rally. I will keep a close eye on the intraday charts for subscribers as we near a potentially major trade setup.

Where are we in this gold bull market?

Well I feel gold is more fairly priced between $1632- $1660 area. Currently gold is trading at $1660 but if things play out like I have seen in the past we just may get one more dip this week to the $1600 area before gold truly puts in a bottom.  Because gold went from a new high all the way down to Friday’s panic selling washout instead of a controlled ABC correction I feel a bottom will be more of a one day event. This type of bottom carries more risk and is more difficult to time and trade. So scaling in with a small position at this level and adding on a drop to $1630 then $1600 could prove to be the safest way into a gold position.

Forward looking I see gold bottoming over the next week or two then a nice relief rally to the $1775 area. Depending on how gold arrives there will alter my next gold forecast so let’s wait and see how things unfold.

Spot Silver Price Forecast – Weekly Chart:

Silver I call the Un-Safe haven because to me it’s not a safe haven in the way everyone’s believes it be. I hear and see everyone including friends and family selling all their stocks and putting their money into silver.  To me buying large amounts of silver with your retirement money is just ridiculous. I m sure my statement here will trigger an inbox of silver-perma-bulls (silver bugs) to send me hate mail but that’s fine as my assistant filters my emails so I don’t have to keep being reminded how rude some humans can be over an simple opinion…

Investments  that can lose 25% in value within 2 days or lose 40% of it’s value in 5 months should not be traded nor invested in with large portions of anyone’s life savings, especially if you are over the age of 50 and have not proven to be a constantly profitable trader. No one can stomach losing that much of their nest egg.

That being said I do feel silver is in a similar situation as gold. I do feel a bottom is near. Silver has formed an ABC correction and the price and volume patterns seem to be in line with a typical bottoming pattern. After Friday’s massive selloff I feel silver may slide a little lower yet before putting in a bottom.

One thing to keep in mind with silver is that it is very thinly traded; there are a lot of speculative traders involved which push and pull the price to extreme levels on a regular basis. So if the broad stock market continues to sell off sharply then I expect silver to follow suit.

Pre-Week Precious Metals Trend Analysis Trading Conclusion:

The price action we have seen this year for both gold and silver indicate were are just warming up for something really big to happen. It could be a massive parabolic rally to ridiculous new highs in 2012 or it could be a large unwinding of the safe havens as countries sort out their issues and the big money starts moving out of metals and into currencies and stocks.

Only time will tell and that is why I analyze the market multiple times per week to stay on top of both long term and short term trends. So if you want to keep up with current trends and trades for gold, silver, oil, bonds and the stocks market check out TGAOG at: http://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/trade-money-emotions.php

Chris Vermeulen

I hope everyone had a fantastic Labor Day weekend. I truly enjoyed myself and was able to have some creativity with my 18 month daughter. I got some new office chairs last week and I finally had time to assemble them during the rainy and windy black Monday here in Canada… Just like a child on their birthday, I tossed the chair parts aside and played with the large boxes with Mirabelle.

With the black clouds rolling overhead, waves pounding the shoreline, rain gushing off the roof, and a pirate book sitting on the coffee table. It was only an hour later which Mirabelle was riding a huge cardboard pirate ship across the room AArrrr’n everything… So I truly enjoyed my day off with the family to say the least

Ok back to the market…

So after I built the Brown Pearl I jumped on the computer so see what the futures market was up to. The good news was that our short trade on the equities market was up 10% from our entry point last week. The bad news was that the stock market overseas was selling off big and so were US stocks. It was a black Monday in both the sky and on the screen…

I’m not really sure how many people watch the futures market but I do know the majority of people do not. So Tuesday morning there will be a lot of people in a panic when they see stocks gap down sharply.

Taking a look at the 4 hour charts you can see the recent price action which unfolded today. We have been anticipating this from early last week. So none of this should be a surprise.

Dollar Index 4 Hour Chart:

The dollar index broke out of it falling pattern and has made a run up to the first resistance level of 75.40. I feel we could see it go a little higher on Tuesday but overall it looks ready for a pause or pullback here.

SP500 Futures 4 Hour Chart:

The equities market has fallen sharply in the past week and the green circle is where we shorted the market using the SDS etf. We did take partial profits last week to lock in 7.4% profit in a couple days, but we still hold the balance of the position which is currently up over 10% using today’s futures price.

The SP500 looks to be getting oversold here and is now entering the previous low set a few weeks back. I will be looking to tighten stops and or exit the position early this week before a sharp rebound takes place.

Bond Futures 4 Hour Chart:

Bonds are a safe haven for investors when fear is running high. The past couple trading session’s the price of bonds have shot up. This tells me panic selling in the stocks market has starting and that generally means we are nearing and tradable bottom for stocks…

Gold Futures 4 Hour Chart:

Gold is the other safe haven. Here again we see money flow into gold at a very quick pace… We will need to see some resolutions in Euro-land before gold will trade lower or sideways, but until then I think scared money is going to keep rolling into gold.

Crude Oil Futures 4 Hour Chart:

Oil has drifted its way up into a resistance level as of late last week only to find overhead supply. Once the selling started oil slid lower at a steady rate all the way back down to a short term support zone. Now we are waiting to see if it will make a double bottom at $79 or bounce here

Weekend Trading Conclusion:

In short, Tuesday will be a volatile session judging from today’s sharp price action. Fear is driving prices at the moment and until everyone panics out of stock positions and dumps their money into the save havens we will not see a bottom form. Generally this takes 2-5 days to play out but time will tell.

I hope this quick Labor Day update helps get you back on track for trading this week. 

 

Consider joining me at TheGoldAndOilGuy for ETF trade ideas on the SP500, Oil, Gold, and Silver with great accuracy. Check it out at

Chris Vermeulen

http://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/free-preview.php

Martin Murenbeeld, the Chief Economist at Dundee Wealth Economics and a noted gold analyst, fears that gold is vulnerable to a sizable correction (drop in prices) while resource industry icon Rob McEwen makes a case for $5000 gold and $200 silver — in four years!  What to do?

This may be a “trading opportunity” for speculators plying for quick profits, but physical gold (and silver) investors need to hold their positions.

Even if Murenbeeld is correct, multiple challenges arise for sellers at these levels.  First, taxes would be incurred on profits.  Second, sellers would be out of the metals at a time when near chaos reigns in the financial markets.  Third, determining a re-entry point is difficult. Fourth, and I’ve see this often, having the discipline to re-enter the market on a drawback requires nerves of steel.  Too often, traders will not re-enter the market at all because they are constantly looking for still lower prices and are left on the sidelines are prices roar to the upside, passing sellers’ original exit prices.

While reading the Murenbeeld article, keep in mind that he is a bull and is only advising clients that gold is vulnerable.  He is not necessarily recommending that investors try to trade this market.

Since the first trading session in May we have seen the stock market sell off. The old saying “sell in May and go away” was dead on again this year. Here we are 7 weeks later with the stock market continuing to lose ground. This extended sell off has everyone all worked up that this is the beginning of another market collapse.

Let’s take a quick look at the SP500 hourly chart covering the month of June.

As you can see, price is still falling but every couple of trading sessions we get some big money players nibbling on stocks accumulating shares and running the market higher. This type of price action is typically an early signal that the market is trying to bottom.

 

 There are two key ingredients for a higher stock market and both have been missing from the mix for a couple months. The two key sectors which have a significant weighting in terms of the broader market are the financial and technology stocks.

Let’s take a look at the financial sector:

As you can see on the bottom of this chart, financials started to lag the market in late January. Ever since then this sector has been in a strong downtrend pulling the broad market averages lower with it. The good news is that this sector has just reached a major support zone and is looking ripe for a bounce and possible rally.

 

 The other main ingredient to a higher stock market is the technology sector.

Looking at the technology sector:

Here we can see technology stocks have been pulling back for several weeks. Tech stocks are now trading down at a major support zone and they look oversold. A bounce from this level is very likely in the coming week.

 

Weekend Trading Conclusion:

In short, I continue to feel the market is trying to bottom here and we are at the tipping point when things get volatile and choppy just before we get a trend reversal in the S&P 500. Keep an eye on the short term charts of financials and technology sectors. Once they start making higher highs and higher lows on the 60 minute charts I believe it will be the start of a nice bounce and possible rally.

Get my free weekly technical analysis on sectors here: http://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/trade-money-emotions.php

Chris Vermeulen

The past couple months (May and June) have been tough on precious metals and crude oil. But recent price action shows that buyers are stepping back into the market buying up these commodities once again.

Let’s take a quick look at the charts…

Gold Futures Daily Chart: /> As you can see from the chart below, gold is making a new high. The big question is if it will do what it has done many times in the past, which is make a new higher for only a few days to get the general public (herd) long, only to then get sold into and come back down? The next few sessions will give us a better feel for this breakout/rally.

 

 Silver futures Daily Chart: /> Silver on the other hand has not performed as well as its yellow sister. Rather we are seeing a base being formed. The exciting thing about base patterns is that the larger and longer the base takes to form, the larger the potential move once a breakout occurs.

 

 Crude Oil Hourly Chart: /> Crude oil looks to be forming a base and or inverse head & shoulders pattern. Both these patterns point to higher prices with a price target around the $110-112 area.

 

 Mid-Week Trend Report:

In short, I feel commodities are now in the spot light and where investors will be looking to put their money to work over the next couple weeks as the falling dollar directly helps boost their prices.

The equities market continues to be volatile with large waves of buying and selling almost hitting the them every trading session. During key pivot points in the market we know pricing for investments get a little crazy at times and we manage positions accordingly and anticipate some moves.

That’s all for now, but if you would like to get my pre-market video analysis each morning and intraday updates along with trade alerts be sure to join my premium service here: http://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/free-preview.php

Chris Vermeulen