In this interview with Ellis Martin, David Morgan (The Silver Guru) shares his opinion as to whether or not the bottom has come and gone in the precious metals market, whether it be the price of the physical commodities or junior mining stocks. Is it time to jump back in?

“Why is gold getting hammered? “the caller asked.  I could hear dejection in his voice.

“Gold’s not getting hammered,” I said.  “The euro’s getting hammered, and right now, just as I’ve warned on my Weekly Metals Wrap interviews with Eric King at King World News, for a while to come gold will trade against the dollar.

“When the dollar’s up, gold is down, and vice versa.  In time, gold will rise against all major fiat currency debacles, but right now there are still huge numbers of money managers who see the dollar as a refuge from the euro.   For gold to rise when there are eurozone problems, more money managers will have to come to recognize gold as the real refuge, not another fiat currency.”

As to when this will happen, no one knows, but it is inevitable.

Actually, such action in gold is – to me – proof that gold is still in the early stages of this bull market.  Yes, gold is now in the 11^th year of this run, but it’s still the early stages.

In the first leg of a bull market, prices rise will little to no attention.  That was 2001 to somewhere between 2009 and now.  In the second leg, prices rise with much publicity and attention, but average investors remain on the sidelines, as  does Wall Street.  In the final and third leg, everyone piles in.

Before this bull market can end, Wall Street has to become a gold bull, but primarily recommending gold shares because that’s where they make their commissions and because they don’t sell gold coins (at least not right now).  Finally, the man on the street buys, as in the 2000 dot.com boom and the housing boom.

As for today’s action, bad news out of Europe where unemployment surged to 10.9%.  This was quickly compared to the official US unemployment rate of 8.2%, which is not only lower than the eurozone rate but is in decline as the unemployed who quit looking for jobs are no longer counted, therefore posting declining official unemployment numbers in the US.

On Europe’s bad unemployment news,  European bank shares took hits, and money managers switched from euros to dollars.  And, judging by gold’s decline, too few euros went into gold to offset the knee-jerk move of moving from euros to dollars.  This, of course, set the speculators to selling gold as the dollar climbed.

Unfortunately, gold investors are going to have to learn to deal with this, and they have to remember that the real reason for buying gold (and silver) is as a hedge against dollar debasement.  Fortunately for the dollar, it remains the world’s primary reserve currency.  The euro is secondary.  Worse for the euro, there lies in the back of the minds of many people the fear that the euro may not survive the eurozone’s problems.  In which case, the dollar looks really good, until you start looking at the financial state of affairs for the US.

For a look at the sad state of financial affairs in the United States—at only the federal level— watch United States Budget Dilemma, a five minute video.

Let me start by saying that I am not a technical analyst. Consider the following to be for learning or entertainment purposes only.

If you take a look at the silver chart from last October, there appears to be a classic reverse head and shoulders pattern forming with a neckline in the $36-37 area. This is considered to be a very bullish formation. The difference between the head and the neckline is about $10, which is indicative of the size of the breakout once the second shoulder has been completed. If the formation plays out, it would mean somewhere around $46 silver in the mid to late summer time frame. /> /> Is classic technical analysis relevant in today’s silver market? Can a reverse head and shoulders pattern overcome the summer doldrums? Stay tuned and find out…

Long term, the fundamentals look stronger every day with central banks around the world continuing to grow their balance sheets (the real QE) and bankrupt governments foolishly pursuing their panacea of endless debt.

Dear Liberty Lovers,

Liberty Coin & Precious Metals 

David Morgan, founder of Silver-Investor.com, breaks down the best and worst silver miners in the first quarter.

Although gold is frequently considered as the only expensive metal that can serve the function of money, silver too is gaining significance in the investment market. The commercial use of silver is increasing and with this, the value of silver is climbing fast too and even quicker than the cost of gold. Thus, if you’re in debt and looking for debtreduction services, you can utilize the cash from your investment to repay your debts. Between Jan 4, 2010 and June 30, 2011, silver made an immense rise above gold in the market. Gold lifted its cost by 34 percent, whereas silver went up in excess of 100 percent, setting an unmatched sellable value via silver investing. Pure silver investments are conducted through the acquisition of .999 pure silver coins or rounds.

The coins are one of the safest means to conduct an investment in the silver market. These rounds or coins are recognized as the most liquid and least expensive way to retain your silver to hand and if the need occurs, a good type of deal or exchange material. The Taxpayer Relief Act of 1997 included the costly metal objects to hold eligibility for addition in the IRA, producing a richer, steadier portfolio via silver investing for the proprietor. Silver has a history of its own. In 14 diverse languages, the words for “silver” and “money” are identical. People have employed silver for trade over gold. Even though gold used in coins were closed in production, silver retains its position as a strong metal worth in the trade market. The silver rounds are a means to invest in a sound, well-built financial future.

Silver – An investment option

Under the existing scenario, a lot of investors are looking for safe investment options. Gold is probably the most accepted safe shelter in disturbed markets, although its authentic use as a metal is comparatively low. There has been much guesswork over whether or not the metal is overrated, frightening a lot of investors out of gold and into a different valuable metal, silver. Silver has turned out to be an increasingly well-liked safe shelter option as it’s available with an economical price mark and a list of realistic uses in comparison to the other precious metal, gold. However, gold’s chief attraction has been its excessive profits over the last few years, generating handsome returns for numerous investors. Whereas the SPDR Gold ETF earned 23.99% and 29.27% in the year 2009 and 2010, the SLV or iShares Silver Trust made a profit of 47.29% and 82.14%, overshadowing the wonderful performance from gold.

Even though silver has created some startling figures, 2011 witnessed a steep fall in the price of the metal. With the costly metal at its cheapest price, and global instability likely to continue, purchasing into silver at such economical costs seems quite alluring. If you’re seeking the maximum return on a safe investment, you might opt for silver. Silver remains the finest and most sensible investment opening out there. As the terrors of inflation are slowly sweeping out of the global financial system, the silver market is clearly building on the new highs.

Real Money Tracker lets you keep track of what your physical gold and silver savings are worth today and in the past. Lets say you bought 1 oz gold coin in 2008 and 5 oz silver coins in 2009 and you want to know what you would get if you sold all of it today. RealMoneyTracker.com calculates this for you and displays cool graphs of how your savings have done in the past. Sure, there are many gold and silver graphs out there showing you the current spot price of real money, but RealMoneyTracker.com shows you your personal graph. For free!

Some Cool features:

*Your personal gold and silver chart! /> *Multiple fiat currencies /> *Keep track of gains and losses

Registration is 100% anonymously, 100% free.  /> www.realmoneytracker.com

Political pundits remain amazed at 76-year old Ron Paul’s appeal to America’s youth. When he goes to college campuses, students show up in groves. A couple of years ago, his flight from Houston to Phoenix was weather-delayed for hours, but when he arrived at ASU thousands still waited to hear him speak.

At the final GOP presidential debate in Mesa, over a thousand youth, who could not afford to pay to attend the debate, waited at a church for Ron Paul to make a personal appearance. Ron Paul did not disappoint, showing up and delivering a basic talk on liberty, freedom, no wars (unless Congressionally-declared) and a reduction in government spending. The crowd went wild.

Ron Paul is so popular that he could have his own clothing line. Actually, he almost does as multiple websites offer Ron Paul shirts, T-shirts, caps, coffee mugs, sweatshirts and hoodies. The latest line of Ron Paul t-shirts proudly proclaims Ron Paul is my Home Boy. Stickers are also available.

Ron Paul is my Home Boy T-shirts and stickers can be bought at www.ronpaulismyhomeboy.com.  5% of all sales of Ron Paul items will be donated to Campaign for Liberty, which sprang from Ron Paul’s 2008 run for the GOP presidential nomination.

Political pundits remain amazed at 76-year old Ron Paul’s appeal to America’s youth. When he goes to college campuses, students show up in groves. A couple of years ago, his flight from Houston to Phoenix was weather-delayed for hours, but when he arrived at ASU thousands still waited to hear him speak.

At the final GOP presidential debate in Mesa, over a thousand youth, who could not afford to pay to attend the debate, waited at a church for Ron Paul to make a personal appearance. Ron Paul did not disappoint, showing up and delivering a basic talk on liberty, freedom, no wars (unless Congressionally-declared) and a reduction in government spending. The crowd went wild.

Ron Paul is so popular that he could have his own clothing line. Actually, he almost does as multiple websites offer Ron Paul shirts, T-shirts, caps, coffee mugs, sweatshirts and hoodies. The latest line of Ron Paul t-shirts proudly proclaims Ron Paul is my Home Boy. Stickers are also available.

Ron Paul is my Home Boy T-shirts and stickers can be bought at www.ronpaulismyhomeboy.com.  5% of all sales of Ron Paul items will be donated to Campaign for Liberty, which sprang from Ron Paul’s 2008 run for the GOP presidential nomination.

The reactions to last week’s hammering of gold and silver further exhibits that we are still in the early stages of a long-term precious metals bull market.  With Tuesday’s huge declines in gold and silver, public sentiment turned bearish almost instantly, which is exactly what the sellers wanted.

In the early stages of a bull market, setbacks produce last week’s results: nearly instant negativity, in some cases panic.  In the latter stages of a bull market, price declines are viewed universally as buying opportunities, which are jumped on with confidence.  In the early stages, setbacks generate concern, cause investors to question the wisdom of their positions.  In the later stages, positions are increased.

Richard Russell, of Dow Theory Letters fame, used to say that if you aren’t sweating your buys you aren’t buying right.  To buy right, you have to separate yourself from the crowd.

Last week’s selling has been reported by experts in the industry to have been an absolute manipulative move.  Andrew Maguire, now known as the London whistleblower because of his email to the CFTC about a coming manipulative move last year, had this to say in a KingWorldNews.com interview: “. . . it couldn’t have been more blatant (intervention in the gold market) could it?  Talk about not worrying about hiding your footprints.  This was obviously sanctioned somewhere at a higher level because the amounts of contracts, paper contracts that hit the market, all at once, within seconds of each other, this was not normal trading.”

Maguire also said: “We were seeing massive order flows.  We were seeing every single bid being hit.  The offers were just massive.  I mean we were seeing 10’s and 20 thousand contracts at a time being unloaded by single individuals.”

James Turk, famed long-time gold trader said, also in a KWN.com interview: “We’ve seen this so many times over the past twelve years, Eric.  I’m taking last week’s smash in the metals in stride.  The fact that central banks chose to intervene when silver had broken out on massive volume and gold was on the verge of a breakout is not surprising.  The situation was getting desperate and they had to intervene at that point or things were going to get out of control on the upside.

“The reason, of course, is that the underlying fundamentals for gold and silver remain very bullish.  I know that corrections, like the one we are experiencing, can be disconcerting to investors who have made recent purchases, but as we have said so many times in the past, the hardest thing to do is to sit tight during these downdrafts.”

The sellers got the results they wanted: negative news on the metals, big declines, which send the message to investors thinking of joining the gold and silver march upward that the metals are dangerous investments.  Not discussed is that gold is up nearly seven times off its low a decade ago and that silver is up nearly nine times off its decade ago low.

Turk notes that “the fundamentals for gold and silver remain very bullish.”  Frankly, I haven’t looked at gold’s supply/demand fundamentals in a long time.  Silver’s fundamentals, of course, are widely discussed in precious metals circles and difficult to miss.  Besides, I’m a silver bull and know well silver fundamentals.  However, I’m not a gold and silver bull because of either gold’s or silver’s fundamentals.

I am a gold and silver bull because the metals are in long-term bull markets as a result of the US’s expansive monetary policy, and not just because of the massive creation of dollars since 2008.  The US went on a dollar binge immediately after Nixon closed the gold window, entering a great inflationary period.  Look at the graph below.

For now, ignore the action from 2008.  Admittedly, it’s hard to look at the graph without being drawn to the part that shows the massive money supply growth since 2008, but for now concentrate on the money supply increase from August 1971 to 2008.

In the decades before 1971, the money supply saw small growth.  In the following decades, the money supply ballooned.  Monetary inflation is followed by price inflation, and massive monetary inflation is followed by massive price inflation.  Gold and silver will remain in bull market regardless of their fundamentals.

A final note on last Tuesday’s (Feb. 28, 2012) bear raid.  Many analysts said it was because of the Fed’s statement that there was no need for another quantitative easing program at this time, which suggested that monetary policy would be “tight over the foreseeable future.”  The Fed could withhold printing another single dollar, and we will still face massive price inflation.  Now, concentrate on the graph for the years following 2008.  Enough money has already been printed to guarantee continued price inflation.  This dip should be bought although there’s no way of know how much further prices will fall before they stabilize and afterwards rebound.

Another piece of advice from by Richard Russell: a bull market will bailout your timing mistakes.  Don’t worry about buying a little too soon.  Only one investor buys at the absolute bottom.