When it comes time to seller your silver or gold, do not sell it too cheap.  Make sure you get full value.

Many CMIGS clients liquidate their holdings to coin shops in their areas because they do not want to go to the trouble of shipping their metals back to us, mistakenly believing that shipping precious metals is not safe, is difficult or is costly.  When selling locally, sellers often leave thousands of dollars on the table because small local dealers cannot match CMIGS’ bids for gold and silver products.  (We know this because sellers tell us what small shops offer.)

Some silver sellers seem especially reluctant to ship because of silver’s bulk and weight.   No way of getting around silver’s bulk and weight, but shipping silver to CMIGS is safe and packaging it is not difficult.  CMIGS has posted a slide show that details how to package your silver for shipment.

We chose to a slide show so that viewers can click through (and click back) in viewing.

View How to Ship Silver.

After viewing, please use the comment feature below if you feel so inclined.  We like to know what our clients think of our projects.  A shorter How to Ship Gold slide show is planned for the near future.

A final note: you do not need to have purchased your gold or silver to sell to CMIGS.  Daily, we buy gold and silver from investors who bought from other dealers.

David A Banister- www.MarketTrendTorecast.com

In my most recent few forecasts for subscribers and public articles I’ve discussed a major correction in Gold, and it dropped $208 within 3 days of that forecast several weeks ago as Gold traders will recall.  Last week I wrote about further consolidation being required in what I’m seeing as a either 4^th wave likely “Triangle Pattern” that will consolidate the 34 month run from $681 to $1910 into August of this year, or a 3 wave “A B C” pattern.  We are right now in some form of C wave, it’s just a matter now of confirming if we are going to get a “D and E” wave to follow, or the C wave drops lower before we bottom.

A Triangle pattern serves to let the “economics of the security” catch up with the prior large movement upwards in price.  In essence, the crowd behavior pushed the price of Gold a bit too high too fast, and this consolidation pattern lets the fundamentals catch up to price action.  We had a parabolic move I discussed many weeks ago, and those always end badly to the downside.  The $208 drop in three days is a typical reaction to a spike run like that.  At the end of the day though, I had been forecasting what I call a “Wave 3” top and was looking for a multi week or multi month consolidation pattern before Gold could move higher.

Let’s examine what that triangle projection may look like.  They take the form of 5 waves, or what we can call ABCDE in a pattern.  The biggest drop is always the “A” wave, and that was 1910 to 1702 in 3 days or less.  The next biggest drop is the “C” Wave, and that was 1920 to 1793, noting it was a Fibonacci 61.8% drop relative to the A wave.  In other words, each successive wave down in the 5 wave triangle is smaller.  This is due to the sentiment finally shifting and the trading patterns moving from people chasing the hot sector or stock or metal, to the long term investors accumulating the dips.

If we end up consolidating in a “Triangle”, then Gold should end up looking something like the below pattern I drew, with a target of $2,350 per ounce many months out:

The other pattern we are watching for at TMTF is the ABC Correction pattern.  We had the A wave down to 1702, which corrected 50% of the move from 1480-1910 in 3 days. Rarely do you get a major move down like that and not get some type of “re-test” of that low, but because the fundamentals for Gold are strong and getting stronger, we are favoring the Triangle pattern still as most likely.  With that said, there is a fat and juicy “Gap” sitting in the chart around 1660 on Gold and dropping down there is what a lot of traders are watching. If that were to fulfill, then we will see an ABC correction ending around $1643, and then Gold will begin another multi month rally to new highs:

At TheMarketTrendForecast.com I teach people my crowd behavioral methodologies and give them reliable forecasts in advance so they can be prepared with their investments.  Consider working with us and following the SP 500, Silver, and Gold by going to www.MarketTrendForecast.com  You can take advantage of a 33% discount over the next 48 hours as well.

Over the last several years I have been asked about my thoughts on the Barclay’s iShares Silver Trust and this is something that has been discussed in our reports as well as many of the interviews that I have done.  In 2009 Jim Puplava of www.FinancialSense.com and I discussed was that Barclays changed the words in the original prospectus from “Silver Bullion” to just “Silver,” which reading as a lawyer would, begs the question Why? To me it implies there might be other silver investments that count but are not necessarily bullion.

One benefit I stated early on is that the silver ETF eliminates two major problems of purchasing large quantities of silver.

There are many reasons why pension fund managers, private investors and even governments are beginning to add bullion to their portfolios. Perhaps the most important reason for this shift is that bullion provides superior insurance in times of financial uncertainty such as we are facing today.

Until governments solve their debt problems and no longer need to debase their currencies through unbridled money creation, a fully diversified portfolio should include gold, silver and platinum both for wealth protection and growth.

Read the rest of article here…

http://www.silver-investor.com/pdf/7-18-11GoldSilverandPlatinum.pdf

There is no single topic of greater importance to the cause of liberty and peace than the nature and control of money. When free market participants are no longer able to choose their medium of exchange, a critical part of the free market dies. The resulting seeds of a centrally planned economy slowly grow and suffocate the power of choice. Productivity and prosperity begin to decline as the incentives for producers are removed. When a chosen few are granted the exclusive right to counterfeit legal tender, the power of individual votes is eventually drowned by a sea of new money.

It’s a complex relationship that the majority of people simply don’t understand. The following video does a good job of introducing the topic in a way that will, hopefully, generate further interest. For a more complete understanding of the subject, I highly recommend Murray Rothbard’s What Has Government Done to Our Money? (Available for download as a free PDF.)

The video makes a couple of points that are particularly worth noting. The first is the fact that government decreed gold standards don’t work. In theory they put strict limits on how much the government can spend. But in reality, when a government feels restricted by a gold standard, it simply reneges on it’s promise to pay in gold. This is precisely what the British government did in 1914 and the United States in 1971.

The second important point is that wars are enabled by fiat money, as it allows governments to simply print the money required to pursue them. It could also be argued that empires are formed by those countries that most successfully inflate their money supply. At the same time, however, this expansion of money and debt also plants the seeds of their demise. Eventually the ever expanding debt forces an end to an empire’s overreach through the process of bankruptcy.

If we are ever to keep real fiscal reins on the government, then we must get the government out of the business of money. Abolish all legal tender laws and let the free market choose its medium(s) of exchange. Put it in the Constitution that the government may only tax and transact in gold. Require a referendum on all spending initiatives, with the cost to the individual attached. Watch how few spending measures are approved when voters see the real cost of each bill, instead of paying through the hidden taxes of inflation and debt accumulation. Watch how few senseless wars are fought when voters see the large war tax deduction on every paycheck.

Of course, many of my readers are equally if not more interested in what happens to silver in a deflation as well.

The views on this topic vary. Some insist that both metals will do well under almost any economic conditions; some, like Bob Prechter, think neither gold nor silver will do well; and others, believe gold and gold alone will be the only thing left standing.

Confused? You should be…

In all matters such as these, studying the past can be beneficial, but — as you have read so many times before — knowing the past is not a guarantee of future results. Personally, I like to let the market speak, and for many years I have forecast that a day would come when the price of the physical gold and silver market would separate from the price “set” in New York or London. Alas, this is the case when looking at the retail market versus the commercial market.

Let us venture in the past when it looked like deflation was going to reign at the bottom of the financial crisis in late 2008. Silver actually traded below $9.00 for a brief time.

At that time,  Jason Hommel of Silver Stock Report stated:

link http://silverstockreport.com/2008/auction-3-update-5.html

The price manipulation at the COMEX has been so  severe in the past, that it has created a profit incentive to create a free market in silver, through an arbitrage between the physical silver market and the paper price as set by the Comex a profit opportunity exists by buying in one, and selling to the other.”

Readers might recall I wrote an article titled Silver Arbitrage, back in August.

link http://www.silver-investor.com/davidmorgancommentary/articles/8-21-08_ibtimes26_SilverArbitrage.html

What we can take from this past history is that those that were savvy enough to see an opportunity and took advantage of it. This writer bought commercial bars and later sent those bars to a mint to have the bulk silver converted into silver rounds.

Looking at the Opinions

Dr. Marc Faber one of the most respected and best followed in the industry has stated his opinion on the deflation debate as follows–”Therefore, under both scenarios — stagflation or deflationary recession — gold, gold equities, and other precious metals should continue to perform better than financial assets.” See article here.

link http://www.ameinfo.com/134334.html

Again going back into the distant past we might glean something …

Castrese Tipaldi wrote on SafeHaven.com, “I don’t know if in the last week we saw the last gasp of those usual subjects trying to cap gold, and I don’t know if we now have the very last possibility to get silver at a price so cheap.” What makes this quote so interesting to me is he wrote this on April 20, 2004. See article here.

link http://www.financialsensearchive.com/fsu/editorials/2004/0420.html

Steve Saville of the Speculative Investor writes, “The most important difference between then (the 1930s) and now is that gold and cash US Dollars were interchangeable during the early 1930s (the deflationary period) by virtue of the fact that the Dollar was defined as a fixed weight of gold. A typical effect of deflation is an increase in the purchasing power of cash. The fact that gold and cash were officially linked during the 1930s meant the deflation caused the purchasing power of gold to increase along with the purchasing power of cash. In other words, under the monetary system that was in effect during the 1930s gold was a hedge against deflation. Furthermore, under such a system the purchasing power of gold would decrease during periods of inflation; that is, when the dollar was defined in terms of gold, it would have made sense to shift investment away from gold during periods of inflation.”

Adam Hamilton of Zeal LLC wrote, “Anything typically financed by debt is likely to see its prices plunge dramatically, like houses and cars, as the ongoing Great Bear bust continues to destroy the gross excesses of debt via higher long rates. Conversely, anything not typically ‘paid for’ with debt, including groceries and general living expenses, is almost certain to rise in the coming years. We are staring down a brutal environment of widespread inflation marked by various sectors witnessing falling prices as debt leverage implodes.” See entire article here.

link http://www.zealllc.com/2003/infdef2.htm

One of my favorites is from Dan Ascani, who wrote essentially about Professor Jastram’s very long-term study on gold, and he essentially states that Jastram studied four pronounced price deflations taking place. In all four deflations, operational wealth in the form of gold appreciated handsomely. When one sees that just by holding gold for 13 years, from 1920 to 1933 operational wealth would have increased 2½ times, one realizes that gold can be a valuable hedge in deflation — however, a poor one in inflation.

Several years ago my entire presentation in The Morgan Report was on the topic of silver and gold during a deflation. In fact this writer is fond of quoting Professor Jastram in both of his books. The Golden Constant which looked at gold during both inflations and deflations, and Silver the Restless Metal which was a similar study for silver. Currently it seems the physical markets are taking control, yet the clues are still subtle, nonetheless with Hugo Chavez asking for Venezuela’s gold to be returned we must ask is this the tipping point in the physical gold market that is the start of a trend?

Gary North states, “There are a few contrarians who think that deflation is coming: both monetary deflation and price deflation. As far as I know, there are only about a dozen of them who write newsletters or run websites. For some reason, most of the deflationists seem to think that gold’s price will rise in a mass deflation. They do not warn their subscribers, ‘Don’t buy gold or silver!’ If they did, they would have fewer subscribers.” See entire article here.

link http://www.lewrockwell.com/north/north436.html

Bob Prechter has written much on the topic; his overview of defining Inflation and Deflation can be found here.

link http://www.elliottwave.com/deflation/

Further, Bob goes on and states that neither gold nor silver will do well in the deflation he had predicted for so long. Specifically, “I’ll cut right to the chase: Unless you’re about 80 years old, the United States economy is undergoing the worst downturn in living memory. Every measure of growth is grim. The world’s most recognized stock index — the Dow Jones Industrial Average — is down 30% from its October 2007 all-time high.

“If ever there was a time for the ‘Safe-Haven’ lure of precious metals to surface — now, yesterday, even seven months ago when the Bear Stearns’ bailout launched the historic reshaping of Wall Street — would have been it. Yet, from its March 17 record peak, GOLD prices have plummeted more than 20%.”

So much has happened since Bear Sterns and Lehman Brothers that it might take volumes to go into it all, let’s simply request that you ask yourself if the financial conditions has gotten better or worse since then?

You can read many varying views on what will happen to gold and/or silver under a deflation. Right now the financial marketplace is so unstable that it is difficult to put too much faith in anyone’s opinion based upon such a short snapshot. Doug Casey has repeated often that the metals, and particularly gold, are a CRISIS HEDGE. I think this is the way to look at the situation.

We have already has the financial “crisis” of 2008 and even the mainstream refers to the massive sell-off as a crisis. Since then both gold has made a new nominal high and silver got very close to its old nominal high of $50.00

The question again for you is…

Has all the stimulus and government/political interventions worked or not?

Be thoughtful in your answer your financial future may well rest upon your action or inaction. 

David Morgan

 

Today, Monday, August 15, 2011, marks the 40th anniversary of the US default on the dollar’s convertibility into gold. It was the world’s de facto reserve currency and thus began an experiment with a reserve fiat currency that was doomed to failure before it began, because there has never been a successful fiat currency in all of history.. August 15, 1971 was just like any other day for most people, and President Nixon’s unprecedented decision to cut the US dollar’s gold international convertibility was largely ignored by the public. The majority of citizens didn’t understand the implications for their financial future. Contrast that to today, where a historic downgrade of US debt and a very public $2-trillion increase of the debt ceiling dominated headlines and the television news.

To read the rest of this article please click HERE

David Banister- www.markettrendforecast.com

Let’s clarify the SP 500 situation here: (Sent to my paying subscribers on August 16th)

Back on the Sunday night, August 7^th I wrote an article forecasting a likely SP500 low at 1096-1100 ranges and explained where those numbers came from.  We ended up bottoming a few days later at 1101.

The lows at 1101 were a convergence of fibonacci weeks, months, sentiment bottoms and VIX extremes along with major insider buying all at the same time. Subscribers to TMTF were made aware of these convergences and were advised to watch 1089-1102 ranges for a major tradable low.

Going back to the March 2009 lows, The SP 500 rallied up in 5 waves from 666 to the 1370 Bin Laden highs.  At that level we had re-traced 78.6% of the entire 2007 highs to 2009 lows, a common turning point.  Since then, we have had a 3 wave decline, also common for correcting a 5 wave move to the upside.  The decline halted at 1101, an exact 38% fibonacci retracement of the 666 lows to 1370 highs.  This is what I call a “fibonacci intersection”. The same thing happened in July 2010 at 1010 on the SP 500, where a huge bottom formed amidst two Fibonacci intersections.  These are crowd behavioral patterns, and we identify them at TMTF for our subscribers.

The rally since 1101 last week to 1204 pivot highs was a 5 wave rally, this is an early bullish sign that most people don’t see. A correction of this 103 point 5 wave rally to 1204 would be normal, but the lighter the correction the more Bullish.  So far the correction is only 23% of the 104 point rally with a gap fill at 1180.

Let’s review the bull signals:

13 Fibonacci month’s from the July 2010 bottom to August 2011 bottoms

7 Times in history we had the SP 500 double in a short period of time, and in every case it retraced 27-40% of the price movement from lows to highs. We just retraced 40% of our SP 500 double, historically very high retracement.

At 1101 we had 38% Fibonacci ABC correction of the Bull leg from 666 to 1370

At 1101 the SP 500 was yielding more than 10 year treasuries

In 1974-77 we had the SAME pattern, which I outlined for everyone last week.

Insiders with massive buying, the most since March 2009 lows, corporate buybacks announced.

VIX at extreme levels

Fear gauges were at extreme levels. Sentiment was over 50% bears with normal readings at 39%.

5 wave impulsive rally from 1101 to 1204 ensued… now a pullback is due. Same thing happened last summer 1010 to 1130, pullback to1040 in 3 waves, then another 5 waves up.

What am I telling everyone?

Stop yelling fire in an empty theater….

This is options expiration week, trading this week is notoriously difficult…

The Bear case is crowded, the Bull case is not.

I’m leaning bullish as long as I keep seeing this type of confirming price action.

I’m watching 1165 on SP 500 as a pivot low worst case, but as long as we see price action above that I like the set up for a while yet on the long side.

(But Dave, the textbook for Elliott Waves doesn’t agree with you… good, that’s why I use other indicators)

Consider subscribing so that you will be consistently informed, have 24/7 Email access to me with questions, and also get Gold and Silver forecasts on a regular basis. Subscribe now with a 33% discount coupon ahead of our rate increase. www.markettrendforecast.com for details.

As is often the case, this week’s significant price action in gold garnered media attention.  First Fox News’ Channel 10 came by yesterday for a live broadcast at 9:30 am, followed by a brief interview that aired for the evening news.   Later Channel 12 came by to get comments for their evening news.  This morning, a reporter called, wanting to develop a gold story for Channel 5.

Invariably, the reporters want to know if gold’s price action has resulted in increase calls.  Yes, we are seeing increased calls, but nothing like the volume of calls we received when the GFC (Global Financial Crisis) surfaced in 2008.  We could not handle the calls then.  What’s the difference?  Why the crush of calls in 2008 buy fewer calls today?  Doesn’t gold’s price surge signal significant problems?

First, gold’s continued move today to the upside does suggest real concerns, not only about the dollar but the euro and all other fiat currencies.  Just when the Europeans thought that they had calmed the waters with the Greek bailout, Italy’s problems surfaced.  And, last week the Bank of Japan sold huge quantities of yen in an effort the lower the yen’s value.  (Anyone old enough to remember when a strong currency was desirable?)

Still the 2008/2009 GFC more directly impacted average investors than does today’s currency crisis.  Average investors knew it was bad when Lehman Brothers failed , Merrill Lynch went bankrupt and was  forcibly rolled into Bank of America by regulators and mortgage companies went under.  Not to be omitted from the GFC was the housing collapse, which directly impacted millions of average Americans.   They understood what was happening in 2008/2009; they are not as attuned to S&P downgrading US debt.

Although average investors  can see a free-falling stock market, they have not yet reacted to it.  As the losses grow worse, many investors will pull out of stocks and move to the metals, proving a whole new group of buyers, which will send prices yet higher.

Finally, it must be noted that Congress’s failure to quickly agree to raise the debt ceiling contributed to rising gold (and silver) prices over the summer.  As the issue wore on, many investors looked  at the situation and did not like what they found.  They became precious metals investors and helped make this summer one of the strongest in decades.

Gold now has the media’s attention.  We can expect more frequent and hopefully better coverage as prices move higher.  We can also expect widespread coverage when there are significant price moves to the downside as there always are in bull markets.   Nonetheless, this is a precious metals bull market, brought on by a real currency crisis, which will not soon be resolved.